Armenia between Putin and Erdogan: a geopolitical assessment by Robert Kocharyan

The political map is something that cannot be rejected. In relation to the Armenian reality, it is important that the actual political map of the region correspond to the “mental political map” of Armenia’s ruling elites. A country bordered by Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Iran cannot afford to pursue the policies of a state surrounded on all sides by Austria, Slovenia, France, and Switzerland.

It is also impossible to conduct policies by turning a blind eye to the experience of previous “interaction” with neighbors. It seems that we are now listing the obvious truths, but the Armenian reality over the past seven years shows that even the most obvious points must be reiterated from time to time. This is exactly what Robert Kocharyan, the first president of Artsakh and second president of the Republic of Armenia, did today.

In his interview with four Armenian media outlets, Kocharyan provided a thorough assessment of the region’s geopolitical realities and outlined the potential range of opportunities for Armenia. Among his key observations were:

1. Turkey’s Ottoman dream is experiencing a new awakening. We are an alien body in the big political picture that Turkey is clearly shaping today. We need to build good relations with this country but resist blackmail.

2. Today, Armenia is unable to ensure its own security in this region. First of all, we need to take care of the army, become more organized, and build relationships with potential geopolitical partners who can fill in these gaps in the country.

3. Restoring strategic partnership with Russia and incorporating Iran is vital. The Iranian factor should be added to the Armenian-Russian relations, turning them into a trilateral format.

4. During his presidency, there were never talks with the presidents of Russia about the inclusion of Armenia in the Union State. The President of Belarus did not raise this issue either. (…) A negative attitude towards the President of Belarus was formed after his visit to Shushi. During his presidency, Belarus did not take any actions that displeased Armenia. The European Commission operates within the EU, which can punish, fine and impose something on the member states. If sovereignty is a priority for Armenia, then the further away from the EU, the better.
Foreign policy partners have already grown unaccustomed to hearing conceptual assessments from Armenia—ones that concern not only the future of the region but also Armenia itself. They have also become unaccustomed to the idea that the ‘mental map’ of the Armenian political elite can align with the geopolitical reality of the region. It is crucial that these assessments be voiced as loudly as possible, especially during the pre-election period.

Yes, Armenia does not have many partners, and not many countries are interested in preserving Armenian statehood. But the countries that are interested in this should also know and see that Armenia can be a reliable partner that keeps its word and does not create additional problems.

Think about it..The political map is something that cannot be rejected. In relation to the Armenian reality, it is important that the actual political map of the region correspond to the “mental political map” of Armenia’s ruling elites. A country bordered by Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Iran cannot afford to pursue the policies of a state surrounded on all sides by Austria, Slovenia, France, and Switzerland.

It is also impossible to conduct policies by turning a blind eye to the experience of previous “interaction” with neighbors. It seems that we are now listing the obvious truths, but the Armenian reality over the past seven years shows that even the most obvious points must be reiterated from time to time. This is exactly what Robert Kocharyan, the first president of Artsakh and second president of the Republic of Armenia, did today.

In his interview with four Armenian media outlets, Kocharyan provided a thorough assessment of the region’s geopolitical realities and outlined the potential range of opportunities for Armenia. Among his key observations were:

1. Turkey’s Ottoman dream is experiencing a new awakening. We are an alien body in the big political picture that Turkey is clearly shaping today. We need to build good relations with this country but resist blackmail.

2. Today, Armenia is unable to ensure its own security in this region. First of all, we need to take care of the army, become more organized, and build relationships with potential geopolitical partners who can fill in these gaps in the country.

3. Restoring strategic partnership with Russia and incorporating Iran is vital. The Iranian factor should be added to the Armenian-Russian relations, turning them into a trilateral format.

4. During his presidency, there were never talks with the presidents of Russia about the inclusion of Armenia in the Union State. The President of Belarus did not raise this issue either. (…) A negative attitude towards the President of Belarus was formed after his visit to Shushi. During his presidency, Belarus did not take any actions that displeased Armenia. The European Commission operates within the EU, which can punish, fine and impose something on the member states. If sovereignty is a priority for Armenia, then the further away from the EU, the better.
Foreign policy partners have already grown unaccustomed to hearing conceptual assessments from Armenia—ones that concern not only the future of the region but also Armenia itself. They have also become unaccustomed to the idea that the ‘mental map’ of the Armenian political elite can align with the geopolitical reality of the region. It is crucial that these assessments be voiced as loudly as possible, especially during the pre-election period.

Yes, Armenia does not have many partners, and not many countries are interested in preserving Armenian statehood. But the countries that are interested in this should also know and see that Armenia can be a reliable partner that keeps its word and does not create additional problems.

Think about it..