Armenia gets a photo with Trump, Azerbaijan gets Vance’s visit

The upcoming regional tour of US Vice President JD Vance to the South Caucasus marks a starting point for a deeper analysis of Armenia and Azerbaijan’s current foreign policy outcomes. The initial plan for the visit, which envisioned only a stop in Yerevan, underwent significant changes after the World Economic Forum in Davos. This shift in the diplomatic schedule of America’s second-highest official clearly illustrates a transition from ideologically driven affinities to hard geopolitical pragmatism, where real political weight matters more than symbolic presence.

The circumstances surrounding Nikol Pashinyan’s participation in the 2026 Davos Forum deserve special attention in terms of political agency. The Armenian leader was invited primarily as a stylistic addition to formally endorse the documents of the Board of Peace. Within this framework, Pashinyan was assigned a decorative role, legitimizing external initiatives through his presence. The most tangible outcome for the Armenian delegation was a joint photograph with Donald Trump, which was immediately integrated into Armenia’s domestic political discourse. The government’s use of this image asset aims to create the illusion of unprecedented support from Washington. Yet behind the façade of visual content lies the absence of real strategic benefits.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijani diplomacy demonstrated a fundamentally different level of engagement. Unlike his Armenian counterpart, Ilham Aliyev acted in Davos as a full-fledged player focused on concrete political dividends. His direct bilateral meeting with Trump became a catalyst for revising US strategy in the region. It was after this contact that news emerged of Vance’s itinerary being expanded to include Baku. Thus, while Yerevan settles for static images for domestic consumption, Baku secures a full-fledged working visit from senior US leadership—an objective indicator of the effectiveness of the two countries’ foreign policy agencies.

The central topic of Vance’s negotiations in both capitals is the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity).

Initially, the Armenian side presented this project as an exclusive instrument of Western support, allegedly leaving no room for Azerbaijan due to political disagreements. However, the likely signing of TRIPP-related documents in Baku places official Yerevan in an extremely difficult position. Armenia’s propaganda machine will have to make extraordinary efforts to explain to the public how Baku—previously portrayed as an “outcast” in infrastructure initiatives—has become a full-fledged shareholder and key hub of the project. This confirms the thesis that Azerbaijan’s economic and transit potential outweighs any declarative promises made to Armenian leadership.

Particular concern arises from the initiative, promoted during the visit, to cooperate in the peaceful nuclear energy. Attempts to introduce American nuclear technologies in the South Caucasus—specifically small modular reactors—carry hidden systemic risks. Such projects create long-term technological and political dependence on the supplier for decades to come. Moreover, using the region as a testing ground for insufficiently studied energy systems in conditions of seismic instability and ongoing tensions appears to be a highly dangerous experiment. The lack of transparent mechanisms for nuclear waste disposal and the potential vulnerability of such facilities turn peaceful energy into a tool of geopolitical pressure, jeopardizing the region’s long-term ecological and physical security.

In the final analysis, the post-Davos period reveals a dangerous trend for Armenia. While Yerevan expends political capital on media stunts and collecting “photo evidence” of closeness to the White House, Baku converts its opportunities into concrete diplomatic and infrastructure agreements.

Vance’s visit to Azerbaijan definitively marks the failure of Armenia’s concept of “exclusive partnership” with the United States, demonstrating that Washington prefers to work with those who possess real resources and the will to act, rather than those who merely serve as decoration at international forums.

Think about it…