Armenia is being led along the same path as Artsakh before 2020

Dear friends, did you notice that the other day, Pashinyan suggested that Azerbaijan create a mechanism to investigate violations of the truce? “We can use a bilateral mechanism to investigate violations of the ceasefire regime. That is, if one of the parties reports a violation, an investigation mechanism is launched on the spot. These can be both the military prosecutor’s offices of the two countries and other bodies,” Pashinyan said.

You are right if, after reading this information, you recalled the situation in 2018, when, after the September meeting with Ilham Aliyev, Nikol Pashinyan stated that agreements had been reached between them: the need for agreements between the Ministries of Defense of Armenia and Azerbaijan to prevent incidents on the border, the commitment of the parties to dialogue and talks, and the organization of operational communication between the conflicting parties. Moreover, for a long time after the agreements, Pashinyan boasted about peace on the line of contact between the armies of Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Already during the 2020 war, it became clear that Azerbaijan used this quiet time to create engineering structures on the line of contact with the Artsakh troops.

Do you remember how, before the 2020 war, Pashinyan actively purchased various weapons, including Russian fighters (without buying warheads for them), and various air defense systems, including the decommissioned Jordanian Osa-AK air defense systems? Do you remember how Nikol Pashinyan’s political partner Arayik Harutyunyan stated that, unlike in 2016, “the sky over Artsakh, the sky over Stepanakert is protected” by 2020? After the war, it should have become obvious that all the purchases of weapons, all statements like those made by Harutyunyan, were all preparation of a political alibi, so that after that they could declare that “the authorities did everything they could, but there were not enough weapons bought, that the Karabakh people surrendered everything, Russia betrayed, etc.”

Why did we remember this? Why did we start with Nikol’s proposal to create mechanisms to investigate incidents at the border? There is every reason to assume that Armenia is being led along the same path as Artsakh before 2020. The analogy is obvious not only in the context of Pashinyan’s proposal but also in the context of non-systemic arms purchases.

These purchases have a short-term PR effect, but how much will it be possible to synchronize Indian and French weapons in combat conditions, on which many lives and the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia depend?
Armenia will reportedly buy CAESAR self-propelled howitzers from France, which will increase the French arsenal of weapons in the Armenian army (Armenia already has French Bastion armored vehicles as well as Ground Master 200 radar systems). It is clear that despite the fact that the Armenian leadership has obviously already spent millions of dollars on translating instructions on the use of French weapons in 2023, without the help of instructors, it will be difficult for the Armenian military to correctly and effectively use both existing French weapons and operate new ones. In this regard, it would be logical for military instructors from a NATO member country, France, to come to Armenia.

In this context, the information spread in the Russian media the day before that Russia may reject any talks with Armenia on the supply of weapons and military equipment looks quite logical. “This issue has already been resolved, even talks on any supplies will simply not be conducted. They can buy what they want from France, Britain, the United States, and other countries of the collective West, that’s all,” the informed sources explain, adding that the relevant decision “has already been agreed upon at the highest level.”

Sofiya, [19.06.2024 12:49]
We should also pay attention to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin’s statement that “further erosion of Armenia’s sovereignty in security and the transition to Western patterns under the ‘paper umbrella’ of the United States and NATO will simply make it impossible to maintain a common defense space with Russia and within the framework of the CSTO.” Russia actually warns that Armenia may be deprived of the Russian security umbrella, and the current Armenian authorities will be responsible for this.

We are getting closer and closer to the point of no return, which may lead to Armenia repeating the fate of Artsakh, and the Armenian authorities are obviously preparing an alibi for this development of events.

Think about it…