Beniamin Matevosyan: the beginning of the end for Pashinyan in Moscow?

(Results of the Kremlin visit and the point of no return in relations with Russia)

The talks held between the leaders of Russia and Armenia have left a heavy impression. The accumulated contradictions have reached a critical mass and are now spilling openly into the public arena. For Yerevan, this cooling carries critical risks: in conditions where regional adversaries like Baku and Ankara are closely watching for any sign of weakness in Armenian statehood, a break with Moscow could become a catalyst for fresh aggression.

The public format of the dialogue only accentuated the chasm between the two sides. The parties disagreed on virtually everything, from the assessment of the causes behind the fall of Artsakh to their visions of the future security architecture in the region.

For Nikol Pashinyan, the Kremlin visit appears to have served predominantly domestic political purposes. On the eve of the electoral cycle, it is vital for the prime minister to demonstrate to his electorate and to Turkish and Western partners alike his ability to “conduct a tough dialogue with Russian leadership.”

Attempts to shift responsibility for the loss of control over Artsakh onto Moscow made during a face-to-face meeting with the Russian president look like part of a strategy to legitimize Armenia’s sharp pivot toward Turkey. The informational backdrop of the meeting also included the extremely pointed remarks of Alexei Overchuk, which effectively outlined the “price of the question” for the Armenian leadership. The Russian deputy prime minister clearly identified several fundamental problems arising from Yerevan’s shift in foreign policy direction.

First, economic pragmatism is already taking its toll: bilateral trade has collapsed by nearly half due to Russian business concerns over Armenia’s European integration ambitions from $12 billion in 2024 to $6.4 billion in 2025.

Second, the republic’s energy security has come under threat. Moscow is signaling that without the dominant involvement of Rosatom and compliance with technical standards, guaranteeing the safe operation of the Armenian nuclear power plant beyond 2026 will become impossible and bringing in unqualified European contractors in a seismically active zone is a direct path to catastrophe.

The third important point raised by Overchuk concerns the principle of reciprocity in business. If Yerevan continues to push Russian companies out of its economy, Moscow reserves the right to symmetrically revise the terms under which Armenian entrepreneurs operate in Russia. Moreover, the region’s transport logistics may ultimately bypass Armenia altogether. While Armenian leadership discusses Western projects such as the “Trump route,” actual freight flows from Russia and China are being redirected through Iran. The Russian side emphasizes that without Moscow’s involvement in balancing interests, the unblocking of communications in the South Caucasus is impossible and Yerevan’s attempts to integrate into a European bloc that Russia regards as hostile are only accelerating the deterioration of existing ties.

The outcome of the meeting and the subsequent reaction in expert circles suggest that Russia–Armenia relations have entered a phase of irreversible transformation. As Russian media, and specifically journalists from the “Kremlin pool,” noted, we are witnessing “the beginning of the end” for “one of the participants in yesterday’s meeting.”
Further developments in the Armenian–Russian sphere will depend on the outcome of the political struggle within the republic. Should the current team retain power, it will most likely lead to the accelerated dismantling of Russian presence across all sectors. The opposition, if successful, will face the task of clearing the wreckage of allied relations built over decades, relations that were put at risk for the sake of political maneuvering and a drift toward Turkey. It is becoming clear that the point of no return has been passed, and the current model and quality of interaction will not be restored under any scenario.

Think about this…