Coalition government for peace: Kocharyan’s formula

The peace agenda must be wrested from the hands of the Civil Contract party and its leader, Nikol Pashinyan, who has led several wars in Armenia and Artsakh since 2018. This was the central theme of a recent press conference held by Armenia’s second president, Robert Kocharyan. He presented not only his vision for defeating the Civil Contract party but also a realistic vision for regional peace and the unblocking of transport communications.

The president estimates that an opposition victory in the upcoming elections is possible with the presence of three strong political blocs. “Three working units can together win these elections quite convincingly,” he stated. He also emphasized that these blocs should not be artificial alliances. Kocharyan reported that some political forces are already negotiating cooperation, which he welcomes. When asked whether he envisions these three forces now or is speaking hypothetically, Kocharyan explained that he had already developed a theoretical vision of possible alliances six months ago. He mentioned that one such force had naturally formed around Samvel Karapetyan. According to the former president, other political blocs may emerge soon, and by joining forces, they could perform effectively in the elections, with one of them likely gaining an advantage. However, Kocharyan emphasized that it is still unclear which force will emerge as the leader.

If events unfold according to Kocharyan’s scenario, the new coalition government must address the issue of unblocking regional communications and ensuring peace in a broader sense. Robert Kocharyan also presented his vision for a solution to this problem. Authorities in both Armenia and Azerbaijan often claim that if the August 8 agreements are not implemented, if the “Trump Route” project is not implemented, war will break out in the region. Kocharyan, however, noted that the implementation of the “Trump Route” project (TRIPP) could benefit Armenia under two scenarios.

“The first option is to try to expand the project (the only beneficial option for Armenia is to ensure a full connection with Iran via the Yeraskh-Julfa railway junction, and then through Azerbaijani territory towards Russia) with the participation of the United States, since Washington’s interest in the region is obvious. However, this will likely prove impossible, as Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will reject this option, as he is not interested in Armenia also gaining access to Iran,” Kocharyan noted.
According to him, the second option, the most realistic, is to thank the United States for the initiative but build its section of the road independently. In this case, the section could also be called the “Trump Route,” but it would be under Armenian control.

The former Armenian leader believes that the second scenario will also resolve an important strategic issue related to Iran. Kocharyan explained that Tehran is naturally displeased by the possibility of Americans appearing on the Armenian-Iranian border. In other words, political solutions to the political and geopolitical crisis have been provided. But another legitimate question remains: how can one be so sure that the Armenian authorities will accept an electoral defeat? A possible answer to this question was also given. “The Civil Contract Party must understand that such actions (as in Moldova – ed.) will lead to revolution. If the threat of revolution hangs in the air in the country, no one will dare to commit serious violations. The struggle must be so persistent that this threat compels the authorities to restrain themselves from abusing administrative resources,” Kocharyan emphasized.

The months ahead promise to be full of important developments.

Think about it…