Does the Pashinyan government have a Plan B?

In politics, it is not very common for actors of the political process to go all-in. However, the Armenian authorities chose this option. What is it about?

Armenia hopes to sign provisions of a peace deal with Azerbaijan in the next four weeks, President Vahagn Khachaturyan told Reuters, a step that could ease tensions in the conflict-ridden South Caucasus, even as Baku has signaled that the process is stalled.

Let’s look at Khachaturyan’s statement in more detail.

No matter how hard we try to focus only on the political and geopolitical component of what is happening, this issue had, has and will have a moral and ethical component. The very fact that the authorities, after the defeat in the war and the occupation of the territories of Armenia, seek to sign a deal in Azerbaijan is an attempt to make defeat an unconditional surrender, as well as an act of national humiliation. Of course, the authorities will say that signing the document in Baku “without mediators” is not an act of humiliation, but a victory for sovereignty, since Yerevan managed to “prevent the interests of mediators from being brought into the negotiation process.” However, this does not negate the above-mentioned moral and ethical components of events.

Khachaturyan’s statement raises another quite logical question: how does Yerevan intend to achieve the signing of an agreement with Baku in four weeks? What is the strategy and tactics of the Armenian side, which will allow not just to receive a formal piece of paper signed by Ilham Aliyev, but a document that will form the basis of the new security system of the Republic of Armenia?

Apparently, the Armenian authorities chose blackmail as a working option. It is no coincidence that Alen Simonyan recently wondered what Baku wants to see during COP29. A constructive dialogue or an event to discuss why Azerbaijan is dragging its feet, does not recognize Armenia’s territorial integrity, and does not return prisoners?

It is no coincidence that the Armenian delegation to PACE is now focusing on the return of prisoners. It is no coincidence that right now 60 members of the US Congress have signed a bipartisan bicameral letter led by Senators Frank Pallone and Ed Markey calling for US leadership in holding Azerbaijan accountable for committing war crimes, taking hostages, and illegally occupying Armenian territory. It is no coincidence that Resolution on crisis situations in the Francophone space, overcoming them, and strengthening of peace was recently adopted, through which 54 member states of the organization expressed solidarity with Armenia and the peace process.

Figuratively speaking, official Yerevan tells Azerbaijan: “We know that you are criminals, and we can start talking about it, we can involve the world community if you do not give us at least some document at your conference.”

Blackmail. This is both the tactics and strategy of the Armenian authorities at this stage.

Here, in turn, another logical question arises: if this approach fails, does the Pashinyan government have a Plan B? Why is it likely that the current plan will fail? It is very simple. All previous plans failed, the clearest example of which was the anti-Karabakh conspiracy of 2022. Pashinyan surrendered Artsakh but did not receive security guarantees not only for the Armenians of Karabakh but also for Armenia itself. Again, what will happen in 4 weeks if Baku does not give Nikol a peace deal?

One of the possible answers to this question is as follows: if Pashinyan’s plan fails, then war awaits us. This was openly stated by the Armenian Foreign Ministry yesterday. “Azerbaijan intends to use the UN COP-29 climate conference to create a smokescreen of legitimacy to escalate the situation in the near future,” Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan said.

To sum up, another failure of Pashinyan personally may bring war to the territory of Armenia if there is no Plan B. In the context of a potential war between Iran and Israel, this could simply be a disaster. Analyzing the situation as a whole, it should be noted that, of course, the idea, the concept of regional peace, is correct. We need peace, perhaps more than any state in the region. However, for the umpteenth time since 2018, Nikol Pashinyan has been trying to achieve this peace, and with a very high probability, this time he will fail, due to the inability to back up his aspirations with real skills to ensure military and political balance, without which peace is impossible.
If we leave aside all theories about the roots of the current government, could the problem be that Pashinyan’s competencies are not enough to implement his plan? Competencies, knowledge, skills…

Think about it…