Double-digit decline in the industrial sector: apocalypse or projected development?
March 05 2025, 19:55
A double-digit decline (by 10.4%) in the industrial sector is worth attention in the context of the January 2025 economic activity index. This fact was also highlighted by the international structure. What is the reason for this decline and should we worry so much?
First, we note that the industrial sector, with its negative growth, countered the January economic activity index. Trade and services played a positive role in this.
The base effect strongly impacted a double-digit decline in January. In January of last year, the industry saw an increase of 19.3%. This is a high base, compared with which the growth in January of this year is negative.
It is no coincidence that growth in this area was negative in the previous two months, again due to the base effect.
In this regard, the decline, of course, does not mean an apocalypse, but the fact that the external factor that ensures the growth of this sector has almost disappeared does not exclude that it will soon bring deep problems to Yerevan.
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