Economic activity still faces structural problems – Alpha Economics

January 2026 closed with sustained high growth rates in economic activity. The Economic Activity Index stood at 7.6%. However, compared to December, there was a sharp decline. What explains this?

The decline compared to December 2025 (-48.3%) is due, on the one hand, to the base effect of high activity in December, and on the other hand, to the lull that typically occurs at the start of the year. In this sense, the January decline compared to December is quite natural.

As for the high activity in January, it is noteworthy that, just as in the previous period, the leading sector driving growth in economic activity continues to be construction.

Industrial growth is also remarkable—10.6%—which is partly explained by a base effect. Recall that in January of last year, the sector experienced a downturn, so again there is a base effect. At the same time, we observed a certain recovery in industry from the second half of 2025, especially in the final months of the year, influenced by the resumption of re-exports. These trends likely continued into January.

In January 2026, the pace of decline in foreign trade slowed compared to January 2025. Has foreign trade recovered? It should be noted that the resumption of re-exports also contributed to the improvement in foreign trade indicators.

As can be seen, economic growth rates remain unchanged, but one of the main problems is their insufficient inclusiveness, caused by the inadequate rise in living standards. The recent intensification of government social policy appears linked only to the pre-election period.