Erdogan failed to convince Russia and Iran to agree to the “Zangezur corridor”?

Upon returning from China after the SCO summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke with Turkish journalists aboard his plane, as is customary, and addressed several questions—including the situation in the South Caucasus.

“I believe the South Caucasus will achieve the peace it has long sought. Both Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan share a common view and are looking in the same direction. The Zangezur corridor will benefit our region and open new opportunities for cooperation, and in time, Russia and Iran will also realize that their concerns are unfounded,” said the Turkish president.

Judging by reactions in the media and on social networks, what most offended Armenian citizens were Erdogan’s words that Aliyev and Pashinyan share a common view and are looking in the same direction. It is strange that this particular statement drew attention, since their shared stance against Armenian Artsakh should have been evident since the 44-day war in 2020—when Armenia did everything possible to prolong the war. (Recall, for example, Pashinyan’s rejection of the ceasefire proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 19, 2020, under which Shushi and Hadrut would have remained Armenian. The fairness of that proposal is difficult to dispute.)

More attention should be paid to another of Erdogan’s comments: “Russia and Iran will also realize that their concerns are unfounded.” These words confirm that Turkey and Pashinyan failed to convince Moscow and Tehran that the project is purely about economic cooperation in the region.

What is happening now was expected: Armenia is actively moving toward becoming a stage for geopolitical confrontation. From a broader perspective, considering Armenia’s functional role in the region, it’s important to note that Yerevan had two key zones of responsibility—Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian-Iranian border—both crucial to the South Caucasus’s stability.

Pashinyan surrendered the first zone of responsibility on October 6, 2022, in Prague, by recognizing Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan. Today, the Armenian authorities, aiming to stay in power in 2026 and hoping to receive comprehensive geopolitical support from Turkey and Azerbaijan, are ready to relinquish the second zone of responsibility—the shared Armenian-Iranian border. This, in reality, calls into question Armenia’s sovereignty.

It even raises doubts about the viability of maintaining statehood that has failed to defend its zones of responsibility. In turn, this makes Armenia a potential arena for geopolitical confrontation. By failing to hold on to what it should have defended “with its teeth”, Armenia is itself provoking other players to take control of what was once its responsibility.

Think about it…