High statistical growth of Armenia’s economy – Alpha Economics

According to preliminary final data for 2025, Armenia’s economy grew by 7.2% compared to 2024. This rate of economic growth is certainly quite high, especially considering that it exceeded the projected figures. Overall GDP growth reached 7.2%, with agriculture expanding by 5.3%—a very encouraging development. For context, agricultural growth was 1% in 2024, 0.2% in 2023, and –0.7% in 2022.

Naturally, the recovery of such an important sector of our economy brings optimism. At the same time, one should be cautious with the concept of “recovery”: for example, agricultural growth accelerated noticeably in the third quarter of 2025, but in the fourth quarter the growth rate slowed down. Therefore, it is still impossible to state unequivocally whether this recovery is the result of temporary, seasonal influences, or whether we are dealing with a long-term trend.

Analysis of growth in other sectors shows that in 2025 construction expanded by 21%, information and communications by 18.6%, and financial and insurance activities by 14.7%. In this sense, there is nothing new to say: Armenia’s economic growth is high, but mainly due to factors or sectors that do not provide full guarantees of sustainable long-term growth. Construction growth, for example, is positive, but even leaving aside the risk of market overheating, it is clear to everyone that such figures in this sector are temporary in nature. This raises the question: what would our economic growth have been if there had not been such significant growth in construction under current conditions? The same applies to agriculture: the growth is truly important and joyful, but have the institutional problems of the sector been solved, has productivity increased, or are we merely observing a temporary effect? This is critically important in the context of long-term growth.

Finally, one cannot ignore the assessments of international institutions, which are quite positive regarding Armenia’s economy. For example, S&P revised Armenia’s rating outlook, changing it from “stable” to “positive.” Such evaluations from partners are certainly important. But they are based on statistical data, the analysis of which calls for caution when celebrating economic growth. On the other hand, the revision of forecasts also takes into account the so-called “peace process” between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the trust in which or its reality remains a matter of individual assessment.