How alarming is the double-digit decline in industry?
July 11 2025, 18:00
In Armenia, industrial production declined by 14.1% from January to May 2025.
Although the decline has somewhat slowed down compared to the previous period (January-April, down 17.1%), Armenia’s industry continues to be in recession. How alarming is it?
First of all, let’s state that the reason for the recession is external factors, namely the cancelation of gold re-export. It’s no coincidence that jewelry and non-precious metal production have plummeted by over 70%.
Food production rose by 4.8%, which is encouraging, but more time is needed to determine whether this increase reflects a lasting trend or is influenced by temporary external factors.
At the same time, contradictory processes are also taking place in the real sector of Armenia’s economy. For example, the construction sector is in the phase of active growth (January-May, up 17.1%), while the number of real estate purchase and sale transactions has decreased.
This is also a reason to think that construction is experiencing growth, while the possibility of income tax refunds on mortgage loans, which once served as a serious incentive for it, is gradually ceasing to work. This is a contradictory development in the real sector, which requires careful observation moving forward.
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