Imitation of war or negotiations amid exploding shells: Risks for Armenia

On June 22, US President Donald Trump announced a “successful bombing” by the US Air Force of three key Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. According to him, the major uranium enrichment sites were completely destroyed. It is noteworthy that neither the US nor the Israeli side has provided any verifiable imagery confirming the destruction. Radiation levels in the region remain stable—otherwise the IAEA would have reported. Moreover, The Washington Post reported that two days before the US strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, satellites captured images of “unusual truck and vehicle activity” at Fordow.

In other words, it is likely that Iran had time to evacuate everything necessary from its nuclear facilities (although there is no definitive proof of this). On the night of June 24, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a full and unconditional ceasefire.

This ceasefire and the subsequent agreement between the United States and Iran give Washington the opportunity to leave the Middle East in a situation where the security of its main ally, Israel, is formally ensured (allegedly, Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed). This, in turn, should free up US resources for containing China.

In the end, we have a situation in which the negotiations between the parties were taking place amid brutal and inhumane bombings of the capitals. Moreover, Nikol Pashinyan is witnessing a geopolitical scenario that could be repeated: a military escalation followed by a shift to “diplomacy” and, more specifically, concessions that will be presented as “victory.”

This is similar to what happened in 2020. However, the conflict between Israel and Iran has shown that this scenario can be repeated in larger-scale “projects.”

Think about it…