Iran–Azerbaijan war: who benefits?

The current escalation in relations between Tehran and Baku marks a shift from covert confrontation to open military ultimatums, turning the South Caucasus into a potential arena for clashes involving major regional and external powers.

The incident involving unidentified drones crashing in Nakhchivan was swiftly and harshly used by Ilham Aliyev’s administration as grounds to close borders and airspace with Iran, accompanied by direct threats against the Islamic Republic. In response, Tehran drastically changed its rhetoric: moving from diplomatic warnings and a policy of “strategic patience” to direct demands for the withdrawal of all Israeli military and intelligence structures from Azerbaijani territory. Iranian officials, including representatives of the central command “Khatam al-Anbiya,” explicitly linked the security of the Azerbaijani people to the presence of the “Zionist element,” suggesting that Baku is effectively surrendering part of its sovereignty to the needs of Israeli intelligence and air forces.

A statement by Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, that Iran would take retaliatory measures at the slightest threat emanating from Azerbaijani territory underscores that Tehran no longer intends to differentiate between Baku and its external patrons.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is actively promoting a media campaign to legitimize possible Turkish military involvement, invoking the “Shushi Declaration.” By emphasizing clauses on mutual military assistance in the event of threats to territorial integrity, Baku seeks to create a legal and political trap for Ankara. The aim is clear: institutionalize Turkish military presence and use it as a shield against Iran. Yet for Turkey, such a prospect carries enormous risks of being drawn into a prolonged and destructive conflict with its southern neighbor, which runs counter to Ankara’s long-term interests. In this context, Aliyev increasingly assumes the role of a “Trojan horse” for Ankara, where slogans of “brotherhood” and “one nation” conceal Tel Aviv’s strategic agenda.

Israel’s calculation in this game is starkly cynical and precise: provoke a direct clash or at least mutual weakening of the two largest Islamic powers in the region—Turkey and Iran—using Azerbaijan as the trigger. Baku’s attempts to bolster its aggressive stance with accusations against Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of preparing terrorist attacks on its territory resemble a textbook campaign to create a casus belli, scripted by Western intelligence services. This strategy of “managed chaos” serves the interests of Washington and Tel Aviv, for whom the South Caucasus is merely a convenient secondary front against Iran and a tool to pressure Eurasia’s geopolitical architecture.

For Armenia, these developments should serve as a “cold shower” and a sobering lesson: Azerbaijan’s example clearly shows how quickly a country can lose its agency, becoming expendable material and a military testing ground for external players. If Yerevan succumbs to similar offers from Washington or Tel Aviv of “security guarantees” in exchange for opening corridors that would effectively become anti-Iranian strongholds, the risk of Armenia’s territory turning into a scorched zone of confrontation between global powers will be inevitable. Under current conditions, Iran has clearly defined the limits of its patience, and any attempt by Aliyev or his regional partner, Nikol Pashinyan, to act as tools of the anti-Iran coalition will lead to catastrophic consequences, with regional players forced to pay the price for the ambitions and intrigues of overseas patrons.

Think about it…