Is Armenia ready for a constructive dialogue with a renewed Russia?

Presidential elections were held in Russia from March 15 to 17. Even Western analysts and the media have repeatedly noted that the election results were, to say the least, predictable, and the main issue remained turnout. This was due to the fact that many (including in the West) perceived this election cycle as a kind of referendum in support of or against the policy of the current president, first of all, regarding the military operation in Ukraine.

This question got its answer: the turnout in the elections broke the record, exceeding 77%. Vladimir Putin received the support of over 87% of voters. It is also clear that by supporting Putin, the Russian people supported the project put forward by the Russian leader.

What kind of project are we talking about, and what are its main features? The answers to these questions are on different planes, from geopolitics to co-optation. Let’s present a number of elements of this project by Putin.

Geopolitics

In Armenia, almost no one paid attention to how, in November 2023, Putin ideologically justified Russia’s shift towards closer cooperation with the East, recalling the example of Prince Alexander Nevsky. He said, “Prince Alexander Nevsky bowed to the Horde khans and received a jarlig for the reign, primarily in order to effectively resist the Western conquerors who sought to destroy Russian culture”.

Economy

One of the main economic developments that Vladimir Putin has been talking about in recent years is the transition to national currencies. Later in 2023, at a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, Putin announced that the share of national currencies in trade within the EAEU had already exceeded 90%, and this figure would only increase further.

However, logic and common sense suggest that the transformation of trade cannot be limited to a mechanical transition to national currencies. The transformation should imply more fundamental changes: a change in the international insurance system for international trade, a change in the pricing system, the creation of its own lending, rating, and consulting institutions, and the abandonment of the dollar as an investment currency, at least within the EAEU. Taking into account the geopolitical turn to the East, it is logical to assume that economic transformations may affect not only the EAEU but also other Asian countries, Iran, and part of the Arab East.

Personnel policy

It is clear that these transformations “on the ground” should be implemented by specific personnel, but since the 1990s, a huge part of the “personnel bank” in Russia has worked in a different logic, embedding Russia into the systems of the Western world. Therefore, a radical change of elites is of primary importance. Who are these people? The answer to this question was given by Vladimir Putin immediately after his re-election.
The Russian president said on the night of Monday, March 18, that the Russian management corps should involve the participants in the special military operation.

“Buffer zone”

It is evident that to win, you need a clear and distinct image of victory. In many ways, this is what Russia lacked in Ukraine, since the goals and objectives of the special military operation were too vague. However, what have we been seeing lately? What did the Russian authorities, including Vladimir Putin, declare after his re-election?

One of the main theses of the Russian authorities today is the thesis that Odessa is a Russian city. Add to this Putin’s statement, made immediately after the election, that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can create a buffer zone on the territory of Ukraine, which will become insurmountable for Ukrainian weapons. In other words, Putin said that there should be a territory with a special status between the main part of Russia and the territory of Ukraine.

Commenting on Putin’s words, his press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said that the size of this zone will be determined based on the firing range of Kiev’s weapons. And the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, specified that the buffer zone should be located on the territory of at least the Dnipropetrovsk region, which will make it possible to secure the territory of the republic. Add to this Putin’s statements that to secure the Belgorod region, the Sumy and Kharkiv regions of Ukraine should be made a buffer zone, and you will understand Russia’s tangible goals in this area.

“Strategic boundaries”

Weeks earlier, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in turn, explained the meaning of the concept of “strategic borders of Russia”, noting that strategic borders are not limited to the physical size of countries, their airspace, or their territorial waters and are not directly related to state sovereignty. He also noted that the “strategic borders” of a state depend on its “political power.” From Medvedev’s words, it became clear that almost the entire former USSR is perceived in Russia as its strategic borders—where there may be sovereign states, but there can be no “anti-Russia” projects, which Russia considers, for example, Ukraine.

Has the West heard Putin?

In the context of this issue, there are two noteworthy factors: commenting on the presidential election, the German government stated on the one hand that it would not congratulate Vladimir Putin on his election, and on the other hand, it noted that it was ready to communicate with Putin.

In early March, it became known that US under secretary of state Victoria Nuland was resigning. Even Western media and analysts note that modern Ukraine is a Nuland project, and her resignation indicates that the Ukraine project in its current form is being closed. This is the fulfillment of one of Russia’s requirements, which became the justification for the start of the military operation: Ukraine should stop being a hostile state to Russia, and everything should start with the political component of this issue.
So, is the Republic of Armenia ready for a constructive dialogue with a renewed Russia?

By the time of writing this article, Putin was congratulated on his re-election by the leaders of China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Venezuela, Bolivia, Bahrain, and dozens of other countries, but not by Pashinyan. This is a vivid demonstration of the chosen foreign policy priorities of the current government.
This is especially significant due to the fact that Pashinyan was one of the first to congratulate Erdogan on his re-election as president of Turkey in 2023.

Think about it…