Is Pashinyan threatening war?

The closer the elections, the higher the stakes. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s latest statement should be viewed through this lens. How else can one interpret a message that essentially threatens Armenian citizens with war?

“In June 2026, regular parliamentary elections will be held, which will answer one key question. The people of the Republic of Armenia must confirm their commitment to peace through their vote. Otherwise, Armenia will slide into conflict and the logic of being a military outpost,” Pashinyan said on October 27 during budget discussions in the National Assembly.

Analyzing Pashinyan’s message, it is clear that today in the National Assembly, he threatened war—not against Azerbaijan, but against the Armenian people—saying that “if his power is not renewed in 2026, war will return.” Let’s break this down. First, if Armenia were truly a military outpost, especially one “held for war,” how did Pashinyan come to power in 2018? Such democratic processes do not occur in outposts. From the beginning, Pashinyan has manipulated public perception.

Second, the reality is that no administration has brought as many wars in seven years as Pashinyan’s has: the Tavush clashes in June 2020, the 44-day war in 2020, the September 12–13, 2022 war near Jermuk, and the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh in 2023. Pashinyan claims these were the result of his own mistakes and a “misguided sense of patriotism.” But is there any political guarantee that his current strategy of continuous concessions is the right one to ensure security? Has he created any checks and balances to prevent future errors? That question becomes rhetorical when Pashinyan declares, “The government is me.”

Third, Pashinyan’s argument that “Azerbaijan hasn’t fired a shot in over a year” is also manipulative. Before the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan similarly refrained from shooting for a long time—a fact Pashinyan boasted about at press conferences. Baku wasn’t shooting because it was preparing for war. And what is Azerbaijan doing now? Rearming its military, including with American and British weapons, and increasing its defense budget. So the claim that “they haven’t fired in a while” is no guarantee of peace, as experience has shown.

Fourth, Azerbaijan and Turkey may be waiting for Armenia to dismantle its own security system through political decisions: withdrawing from the CSTO, removing the Russian 102nd military base and border guards under the pretext that peace has been established in the region and third-party forces are no longer needed. Armenia could then fall into economic dependence on Baku and Ankara, allowing economic leverage to become political pressure. The Armenian authorities are moving in this direction (the criminal case against Gyumri Mayor Vardan Ghukasyan for his political stance—that it’s better to join the Union State than align with Turkey—is further evidence of this).

In the end, if Pashinyan retains power in 2026, the final dismantling of the security system established since independence will be complete. After that, there will be no deterrents left to prevent Turkey and Azerbaijan from tightening their grip on Armenia.

Thus, if power is retained in 2026, it could lead to the dissolution of Armenian statehood. The only remaining question will be: when and how will it happen?

Think about it…