New US Ambassador – new Washington policy in Armenia?

The global security architecture is reaching a point of no return, and Donald Trump’s sudden decision to recall ambassadors from 30 countries, including Armenia, is not just a personnel reshuffle. It is a loud final chord in the dismantling of the liberal world order, which for many years served as a guiding framework for Yerevan’s elites. The conclusion of Kristina Kvien’s tenure in January 2026 is part of the large-scale “personnel purge” initiated by Washington. Trump is not simply changing people—he is eliminating the “globalist dust” accumulated under the Biden administration and radically changing the rules of the game in Greater Eurasia.

Against this backdrop, the official comment from the US Embassy in Yerevan that “Washington’s policy will remain unchanged” after Ms. Kvien’s departure looks more like an attempt to save face in a losing game. Such statements are nothing more than diplomatic inertia. It is important to understand that the embassy is merely an executive body, while the architecture of foreign policy is built in the State Department, which is now strictly subordinated to the president’s will. The priorities of “America First” are dictated from the Oval Office, and no press releases from diplomatic missions can conceal the fact that US strategy in the region is undergoing a fundamental revision.

For Armenia, this shift means the end of an era of illusions. The new US National Security Strategy (NSS) effectively signals a return to a world divided into spheres of influence. By abandoning the role of “global policeman,” Washington is implementing a “Monroe Doctrine 2.0,” concentrating resources on the Western Hemisphere and a hard confrontation with China. In this new framework, US interests in the South Caucasus become secondary, and their protection is largely delegated to regional allies.

The role of regional “overseer” has effectively been assigned to US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack. The fact that Armenian-American relations are now coordinated from Ankara is no longer a secret. It was Barrack, working closely with Turkish intelligence, who oversaw the negotiation process that led to the signing of the trilateral declaration on August 8, 2025. Washington has shifted to pragmatic partnerships with regional powers—Turkey, Iran, and, most importantly, Russia. The softened rhetoric toward Moscow in the text of the new NSS indicates US intentions to recognize Russia’s legitimate interests in Eurasia to prevent its final alliance with Beijing.

For Armenia’s ruling elite, whose political capital was built on the patronage of Biden’s Democratic administration, difficult times lie ahead. The hope for unconditional American intervention or military security guarantees in the South Caucasus now appears to be a fatal miscalculation. Trump is waging a battle against globalist elites worldwide, and Yerevan’s leadership, closely affiliated with Washington’s outgoing agenda, finds itself in a zone of direct political turbulence.

This situation requires the immediate emergence in Armenia of a new political elite capable of “complementarism”—a complex balancing of the interests of key players without reliance on a distant guarantor. The era when one absolute guarantor could be exchanged for another has ended. The future of the republic now directly depends on Yerevan’s ability to realistically assess the decline of direct US involvement in Eurasian affairs and to build a policy based on harsh realism. Either Armenia learns to live in a world of “spheres of influence,” or it will become a bargaining chip in a grand deal among superpowers.

Think about it…