Pashinyan’s position is shaky

It may not be noticeable to many, but Armenia has already entered a pre-election phase. Some parties are establishing regional offices, while others are already considering the formats for participating in the upcoming elections (even those who have been vocal about not participating), and Nikol Pashinyan is launching attacks. The arrests, the announcement of raids in Etchmiadzin, the attempted takeover of ENA, the searches, the fight in the National Assembly, and the removal of parliamentary immunity—all of this escalation is linked to the upcoming electoral processes and has been particularly exacerbated by Samvel Karapetyan’s political statement.

It is noteworthy that we are dealing with a vicious circle here: by arresting Samvel Karapetyan, Pashinyan has made him a political actor. Each new round of his confrontation with the Karapetyan family strengthens Karapetyan’s desire to actively fight the current government, as evidenced by the fact that his legal team continues to file lawsuits against Pashinyan’s team, as well as the information circulating in the media about his potential political force. The laws of physics can also apply to politics. Newton’s third law can be simplified as follows: every action produces an equal and opposite reaction.

Amid domestic political tensions, there has been an increase in activity on the Armenian-Azerbaijani track, and this is not just about the recent reports of a possible meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev in Dubai in late July.

The situation has reached a point where Azerbaijani presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev claimed, “There is already peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For the peace agreement to come into force, one final step remains: Baku expects Armenia to amend its Constitution.” Days earlier, Aliyev’s special representative, Elchin Amirbayov, had made a similar statement.

In Baku, they want maximum concessions from Pashinyan due to the internal political tensions. They want to do this before Pashinyan leaves the prime minister’s office; therefore, they will push for constitutional changes before the parliamentary elections.

Think about it…