Sergei Melkonian | What to Expect in 2026? | Armenia will not join EU, nor leave EAEU

The development or deepening of tensions in Armenian-Russian relations, according to Sergei Melkonian, Research Fellow at APRI Armenia, is connected with Armenia’s relations with the West and the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

“First, will Russia have enough resources to focus on Central Asia and be more active in the South Caucasus? Second, the factor is related to Armenia’s foreign policy: we see that the Armenia–West agenda raises certain issues, for example, discussions about the EU and the EAEU. But to me it is obvious that Armenia will neither become a member of the EU nor leave the EAEU. From Russia’s side, I do not see readiness to completely reconsider its attitude toward Armenia. All calculations show that leaving the EAEU would be an economic disaster for Armenia. The government states that such a question is not on the agenda; they fully understand what negative consequences would follow if Armenia were to exit the EAEU. No one is prepared to manage these risks. Moscow’s statements that Armenia will be forced to choose between the EU and the EAEU are essentially a reaction to statements from Yerevan about intentions to become an EU member. But even EU experts directly assert that within the next 30 years Armenia will not become a member of the European Union,” Melkonian said.

According to him, there is no agenda for Armenia’s accession to the European Union. Joining the EU, Melkonian explained, first of all requires signing an association agreement, obtaining candidate status, and only then can membership be discussed. Yet even candidate status does not guarantee that Armenia will eventually become a member of the European Union.