Stratfor does not believe Pashinyan

Usually, the results of the past cycle are summed up at the end of the year, while at the beginning of the year, plans are often made for the next 12 months, and a forecast for the near future is given. In this context, it is worthy to pay attention to an article by the American analytical agency Stratfor. As always, Stratfor presented its forecast for 2025. Why is the analysis of this particular agency important for us? For the reason that its services are used by the governments of a number of countries, primarily the United States. The center’s forecasts also tend to be implemented.

So, in 2019, the same center wrote that the White House was preparing to strike at the CSTO and intensify its activities in Armenia, and the risk of a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh was high. The center also analyzed the potential of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In other words, analytics allows you to predict the future situation “on the ground”.

How do Stratfor analysts see 2025 for Armenia?

1. Armenia and Azerbaijan are likely to continue moving towards a peace agreement, but disagreements over constitutional changes in Armenia, the details of the full demarcation of their border, and the opening of transit links are likely to block a peace agreement in 2025.

2. Both sides will look for foreign patrons to maintain leverage in the talks. Armenia’s efforts to secure strong US support will be thwarted as the Trump administration prioritizes strong relations with Baku as a regional counterweight to Russian, Iranian, and Chinese regional influence.

3. Armenia will rely on military equipment from France and strive to increase trade with the European Union.

You must admit that American analysts are not drawing a very promising picture for Armenia. Not only do they not believe Nikol Pashinyan and his propaganda about peace, but they also rightly point out that the “main bet” on defense issues is on France. France, which has recently withdrawn its military troops from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, will soon lose its military presence in Chad and Senegal, and at the same time cannot cope with Azerbaijan’s interference in the affairs of its overseas territories (primarily in New Caledonia, as French President Emmanuel Macron complained about the day before) and also does not have the opportunity to build military logistics for Armenia in case of war or even local clashes.

It doesn’t look like 2025 is going to be any better than 2024…

Think about it…