Russia and CSTO would not be able to ignore Azerbaijan’s invasion of Armenia

Speaking with Alpha News, Russian political scientist and expert on the South Caucasus Konstantin Tasits commented on the tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the possibility of a new escalation.

“There is an objective factor here: geography. Armenia does not have any other neighbors, and it must deal with what it has. The only thing that can be recommended here is to strengthen statehood, strengthen state institutions to ensure the country’s position remains strong, and at the same time pursue a pragmatic foreign policy, avoiding maximalist and unattainable goals while clearly and firmly defending its own national interests,” the expert said.

Azerbaijan’s false allegations regarding the shooting from Armenia are pragmatic in nature, noted Konstantin Tasits.

“Perhaps Azerbaijan is using this tactic as a means of pressure to expedite Armenia’s agreement to remaining conditions for signing a peace treaty. This is the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group and the implementation of constitutional reform in Armenia to eliminate provisions that, from Baku’s perspective, are considered territorial claims. In this case, the key point is the restoration of trust and the establishment of some mechanisms for interaction between Armenia and Azerbaijan to prevent further escalation at the border,” Tasits emphasized.

The expert is convinced that Azerbaijan will not invade Armenia.

“It seems to me highly unlikely that Azerbaijan would openly invade the territory of Armenia. I am not talking about border clashes but about a targeted military advance, because this means international isolation. This means a strong response from the international community as a whole. And, of course, Russia and the CSTO would not be able to ignore this. They would have to react if this happens.

These are quite strong deterrents for Azerbaijan, which will most likely prevent such developments. Azerbaijan’s leadership is quite pragmatic. They understand all this; therefore, they are unlikely to expose the country to such danger,” Tasits concluded.