Russia cannot be excluded from South Caucasus equation – Alexey Anpilogov

Speaking with Alpha News, Russian political analyst Alexey Anpilogov commented on the Washington agreements between Baku and Yerevan and whether they could lead to Russia’s withdrawal from the South Caucasus.

“It is unlikely that the South Caucasus can function without the Russian factor, because Russia is simply too close to these countries, and mutual influences are inevitable. In other words, it is impossible to exclude Russia from the South Caucasus equation. On the other hand, it is important to understand that Armenia is currently trying—on a rather subjective basis—to replace Russia and the Russian factor with the American one, including in the highly sensitive issue of the ‘Zangezur corridor’ in the Syunik region. But here, one can only remind Armenia’s current leadership of the negative experience after World War I, when a similar bet on the United States and the Wilsonian Armenia project ended in the collapse of the then Armenian government, which failed to resolve the political challenges facing the Armenian state. After that, Armenia’s history continued as the history of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic, where Armenian identity was preserved despite the authoritarian nature of the Soviet Union and the rapid and irreversible assimilation of Armenians within the Turkish state and the loss of Armenian identity,” Anpilogov said.

According to the political analyst, Armenia must carefully assess whether US policy truly aligns with its national interests.

“I believe this historical moment must be thoroughly assessed by Armenia’s current leadership—how well the United States, in its current phase of reevaluating its hegemonic role and its ability to maintain arbitration functions across Eurasia, aligns with Armenia’s interests. Here, this question is not primarily for Russia, because Russia will retain its influence regardless. But that influence may be insufficient and not decisive in conflict situations that require not only diplomatic or economic cooperation, but also military support for sovereignty. In this regard, Armenia is currently facing a serious crisis, which, in my considered opinion, the United States will not be able to protect or strengthen with its military power—especially since it clearly lacks the capacity even for its more pressing tasks, such as the declared defense of Taiwan or its other Southeast Asian allies, which it views with far greater strategic involvement than the issues of the Armenian state,” Anpilogov noted.

The expert concluded by expressing hope that the proposed settlement will be final and that Baku will not present new demands that further restrict Armenia’s sovereignty.

“In my view, if problems arise, the United States will simply withdraw from the settlement process or take a neutral stance, which is unlikely to preserve the current status quo,” Anpilogov concluded.