Russia has been the most reliable mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict for many decades — Evgeny Semibratov

Speaking with Alpha News, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Evgeny Semibratov, commented on the reports that Armenia is not against signing a peace treaty on the sidelines of COP29 in Baku, but the choice is up to Azerbaijan.

“The current leadership of Armenia does not hide the fact that the current initiatives to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan are actively promoted by the West as a further option for the development of Armenia’s foreign policy. Western news agencies were the first to write about this initiative. But here we need to understand what kind of relations Armenia has with Russia and what kind of relations Azerbaijan has with Russia, because throughout the long decades of the resolution to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Russia has been the most reliable and constant mediator. Russia has repeatedly intervened at the moment of a sharp escalation of the military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh,” Semibratov said.

According to the expert, from a legal point of view, relations between Russia and Armenia are at a deeper and more intense level than those between Russia and Azerbaijan.

“On the one hand, Russia and Armenia have allied relations within the CSTO, a full-fledged alliance. But on the other hand, we have the Russian-Azerbaijani declaration on allied cooperation, signed on February 22, 2022. However, we must admit that from a legal point of view, relations between Russia and Armenia are at a deeper and more intense level because this is a military alliance, and military and political security is the main tool of interaction in this area.

Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia are legally one step lower, but at the same time, we clearly see the Armenian Prime Minister’s attitude towards Russia and the idea of a Russian military presence in the South Caucasus, and we understand that the President of Azerbaijan, in turn, has a very constructive approach towards Russia. Azerbaijan does not say this directly, but I would not exclude that there is a high probability that Azerbaijan would like to see Russia as a third party to this agreement, as a guarantor and mediator,” Semibratov concluded.