Russia is now speaking as victorious state – Pavel Dubravskiy

Speaking with Alpha News, political strategist and head of Dubravskiy Consulting, Pavel Dubravskiy, commented on US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine. According to the political scientist, Russia is now speaking from the position of a victorious state.

“I believe we should first and foremost expect official signals from all three sides. Right now, I’d focus on the Russian side, because the expected meeting with Witkoff—which, for now, doesn’t seem to have been cancelled despite some media reports—is a very revealing one. We’ll learn Russia’s position, because despite having defended its interests through secondary diplomacy, represented by RDIF head Kirill Dmitriev, and demonstrated its position regarding the negotiations, it still understands that such agreements inevitably involve compromise in some areas, while in others it refuses and issues ultimatums.

Firstly, we should expect continued skepticism from the European Union. Secondly, we should expect an attempt by the US to pressure, lobby, and push this deal forward. And thirdly, I would closely monitor Russia’s reaction, because Russia is speaking here from the position of a state that is currently winning the conflict—I’m referring to military clashes—and that has resources on its side, including diplomatic ones, which is also very important,” Dubravskiy said.

According to the expert, Russia currently has two scenarios, both of which are winning.

“Option one: Russia could prolong the negotiations to conduct them later on an even more favorable basis, with an even stronger position, based on what’s happening on the ground, on the battlefield. Option two: agree to an agreement if its primary demands, voiced back in 2022, are fully heard—that is, with certain compromises, but with respect for its own principles and interests. For example, that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO. Then Russia would diplomatically demonstrate: ‘We’ve listened to the international community.’ I believe this would make the lifting of sanctions, or at least the start of a sanctions discussion, more likely, since the American side is prepared for it. The EU, in its counterproposals, essentially postponed this issue indefinitely.

Therefore, I think that Russia now literally has two scenarios, and, frankly, both are beneficial for it: it can either delay the talks or agree to them now,” Dubravskiy concluded.