Russia is still interested in Armenia preserving its territorial integrity, political scientist says

 
Speaking with Alpha News, political scientist Vladimir Kireev commented on the CSTO Secretary General’s hopes for Armenia’s political sobriety regarding its membership in the organization.

“Since 2018, immediately after coming to power, the Armenian authorities began to make statements that they were not satisfied with cooperation with Russia, participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, or the EAEU, and considered all these structures unprofitable for Armenia. At first, this was happening in a soft form, but after 2020 and the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian authorities began to directly say that the CSTO ignored the security issues of Armenia, did not provide any assistance, and almost the entire organization stood aside, thereby violating allied relations with Armenia.

At the moment, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has made several statements that Armenia plans to terminate its membership in the organization, creating contractual obligations with Western countries, NATO, France, and the United States to ensure the country’s security. In turn, the CSTO and Russia ask Armenia not to rush things and make a more considered decision, saying that it is the CSTO and Russia that ensure security in the region,” Kireev said.

According to the expert, the current situation may seem like a window of opportunity for Azerbaijan and Turkey to resolve their territorial claims in relation to Armenia.

“It should be noted that both sides behave quite ambiguously, because Russia and the CSTO do have a neutral position towards Armenia. If we are talking about the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia directly said that it does not guarantee its security because, in terms of international law, Nagorno-Karabakh is not part of Armenia, and even Armenia itself does not recognize its independence. On the other hand, it is difficult to believe that the Armenian leadership is fond of Russia and the CSTO.

Very serious accusations and reproaches are that the Armenian authorities did not specifically send any official demands and sabotaged the activities of the organization to present it in such a way that the country does not take part in the organization. That is, it specifically creates conditions so that later the organization can be accused of incapacity and, in fact, self-destruction. From the very beginning, they pursued such an ambiguous policy towards the CSTO.

All appeals to the CSTO were through the media rather than official legal instruments, including queries. All this can lead to a whole series of questions. Because, on the one hand, Russia is really moving away from this region, the CSTO is disappearing as a factor. On the other hand, it is unlikely that the West will provide any support on the ground. At the same time, it is quite possible to suspect that Western countries are provoking an escalation of the situation. It is difficult to predict how Azerbaijan and Turkey will behave in this situation; for them, this may seem like a window of opportunity to resolve their territorial claims in relation to Armenia,” Kireev noted.

According to the expert, these are the coldest relations between Russia and Armenia over the entire period of independence.

“It should be noted that these are the coldest relations between Russia and Armenia over the entire period of independence. But at the same time, Russia is still interested in Armenia preserving its territorial integrity so that there are no territorial claims from Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Russia is interested in preserving the independence of Armenia, but Russia will no longer be able to take an active part in ensuring security because, after the departure of the Russian armed forces and the withdrawal of military bases from Armenia, there will be much less way to influence the situation,” Kireev concluded.