Sergey Panteleev: If NATO comes to the region, it will be represented by Turkey, not France or the US

Speaking with Alpha News, Sergey Panteleev, the Director of the Institute of the Russian Diaspora, noted that Armenia and this region are fundamentally important for Russia, and Russia does not want Armenia to become a victim of circumstances.

“The problem with Ukraine arose because when Russia has been delineating its red lines for a long time, neither the Ukrainian leadership nor, strictly speaking, those who determine their policy understood this. First of all, this is America and its allies. Russia has shown that it is capable of making very difficult decisions that are still difficult to perceive. Now there is an intensification of confrontation, and the West is still counting on the fact that it can win militarily. Armenia and this region are fundamentally important for us, but we would not want Armenia to become a victim of circumstances. At the same time, of course, we understand that there is also Iran, which has its own plans for the region.

We understand that if Russia and the CSTO leave—and the world, as we know, does not tolerate a vacuum—someone will want to fill this vacuum. Let’s call a spade a spade. If NATO comes, whose troops will represent the alliance? Some people here believe that it will be either France or the USA, but this is not so. It will be Turkey. What could this situation turn into? Russia understands this very well; it does not want and does not intend to leave the region. You are talking about France, which today also makes all sorts of different statements in the Ukrainian direction.

Europe makes various promises to Ukraine, which, by the way, has been a fairly stable state for a long time. They are still working according to the scheme of numerous promises, such as admission to NATO and the European Union. Let’s look at other examples. If it doesn’t work there, then why will it work here? This scheme will work in almost the same way, which is clearly disadvantageous for our Armenian friends,” Panteleev said.

The political scientist also commented on the multi-vector policy, emphasizing that since 2014, Russia has perceived this concept extremely skeptically.

“I remember very well the times when Ukraine liked to talk about the need to sit on two chairs, but it did not turn out well. Regarding our fraternal Belarus, remember the building of bridges and integration? But when the question arose about the survival of the state, about the loss of sovereignty, all questions about multi-vectorism disappeared. Allies must really interact. I will say honestly that since 2014, the very concept of multi-vector in Russia has been perceived extremely skeptically.

Because when we are in a severe geopolitical conflict, the concept of multi-vector has more than just ambiguous connotations. Does it imply that you are both friends with Russia and, at the same time, friends with those who are at war with Russia? This is a utopia. We have a real policy, which assumes that the EAEU, in which we participate, is first and foremost an economy. By the way, Armenia receives very serious benefits from participation in the EAEU, and we understand this very well,” the political scientist emphasized.