Situation in Iran will spread to South Caucasus – Alexey Mukhin

Political scientist Alexey Mukhin spoke to Alpha News about the possible spread of the war between the United States and Israel against Iran to the countries of the South Caucasus.

“The problem is that there are too many variables. The US pursues one line, Israel another, China and Iran their own, and Russia its own. And that’s just the main direct and indirect participants. There is also the Sunni arc, the European Union factor, and more. Much depends on these factors: whether the Gulf states enter into a direct military conflict with Iran or not; whether the US eventually withdraws from this conflict or continues to provide full support to Israel, even resembling military adventures. At this stage, it is impossible to say definitively. There are simply too many variables,” the expert said.

Mukhin added that he tends to believe the spread of the conflict is inevitable, and that it will affect the South Caucasus as well.

“At this stage, Israel and Britain are extremely interested in expanding the conflict, including into the South Caucasus. On social networks and in the media, quite serious signs and symptoms are already appearing that the situation—political, economic, social, national—will inevitably be destabilized not only in Armenia, but also in Georgia, and especially in Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, the preconditions are too negative to offer any optimistic outlook. Yes, most likely, the situation will to some extent spread to the countries of the South Caucasus. But the main focus here is undoubtedly Azerbaijan, which is currently being drawn into this conflict in one way or another,” the expert concluded.