The Armenian authorities are doing the splits – Yevgeny Minchenko

On the sidelines of the presentation of the Dynamics of Friendliness of Communication Regimes of Post-Soviet Countries by the National Research Institute for the Development of Communications (NIIRC), Russian political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko commented on Armenian-Russian relations amid Armenia’s potential European integration, as well as the importance of the South Caucasus region for Russia.

“I believe this trend in Armenia will largely depend on how Nikol Pashinyan will try to build relations between ‘mom’ and ‘dad’ (the US and the EU) in the context of their emerging ‘divorce’. Until recently the US and the EU had a consolidated position in the post-Soviet area, now, after the statements by Trump, JD Vance, and the reciprocal rebellious statements of the EU countries, including France’s Macron, who is trying to act as Armenia’s guardian, it is clear that suddenly the Armenian authorities are doing the splits.

And the question ‘who do you love more?’ is becoming relevant for Pashinyan and his team. A certain failure may occur, especially since Armenia may take so long to join the European Union that by the time it is completely ready, the European Union will have already completely collapsed. The crisis there is quite serious.

I have the feeling that, based on the opinion of a part of society, Pashinyan has taken the path called ‘a small country’: We do not need Karabakh! If you want the Syunik corridor, take it, just don’t hurt us! But there is a question: what is the size of this small country? And isn’t the idea of becoming small enough to be of no use to anyone and left alone utopian?” Minchenko told Alpha News.

When asked about Russia’s interest in the South Caucasus, the expert emphasized its importance but noted that at the moment Moscow has priorities on other political tracks.

“I believe that if Russia did not need the South Caucasus, it would not be pursuing a sufficiently active policy there. In the conditions of the special military operation, resources are objectively limited to be involved in this region as well. It is illogical to say that you will give everything to Turkey, especially since Turkey has a huge number of internal problems. Let’s wait a little longer and see what will happen in the next presidential elections,” Minchenko emphasized.

According to the political scientist, there is a key difference between the Azerbaijani and Armenian diasporas in their interaction with the current authorities of their countries.

“I think that the Azerbaijani authorities are going all-in now. But the question is how much this will be limited to rhetoric and restrictions in the communications sphere. The key difference is that the Armenian diaspora is distanced from the Armenian authorities, while the Azerbaijani diaspora is very closely integrated into Aliyev’s team,” he concluded.