The logic of history cannot be broken by the logic of some politician: Alexei Anpilogov

Political analyst Alexei Anpilogov shared his assessment with Alpha News of the political landscape in the South Caucasus against the backdrop of Vladimir Putin and Nikol Pashinyan’s meeting at the Kremlin.

“Russia wants to see a strong, independent Armenia as a counterweight to Turkey and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus. At the same time, one must understand that Pashinyan’s bet up until now has been precisely on this vision of Armenia’s future, and he believed he had found allies in the United States. However, the US has now significantly weakened its future plans for the South Caucasus as a result of the conflict with Iran. And this is something Pashinyan must take into account. Hence the need to somehow build relations with both Russia and Iran, which, though seemingly bombed out, has nonetheless grown stronger geopolitically,” Anpilogov believes.

The analyst notes that Armenia’s European aspirations will not go unnoticed by the Russian side, and that Armenia holds a very important place in Russia’s regional policy in the South Caucasus.

“Putin’s warning regarding the EU essentially concerns the same dynamics, because the European Union is also interested in the so-called pan-Turkic corridor, which it views as a bypass route around Russia for access to Azerbaijani oil and gas, as well as to Central Asian natural resources. That is, Armenia truly plays the role of a kind of ‘keystone’ in the South Caucasus, one that can either become part of the territory through which this corridor passes, or serve as an important security element should Russia, Iran, and Armenia take a unified stance,” the expert emphasized.

In the view of the Alpha News interlocutor, there are objective political processes that Pashinyan is attempting to ignore.

“Pashinyan believes that his drive toward the European Union is irreversible and that he will be able to push it through while ignoring the opinion of the people and, ultimately, the Church, on which he is now exerting serious pressure, the likes of which may not have been seen even during the period of Muslim rule. But one must understand that there is a logic of history that cannot be broken by the logic of intentions of some politician, even one holding the highest state office,” he concluded.