The Middle East war could spell the end of the TRIPP project: Giorgi Asatryan

Giorgi Asatryan, Deputy Director of the Center at the HSE University Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy, shared his commentary with Alpha News on the US-Israeli war with Iran, its course and prospects, as well as the conflict’s potential impact on the South Caucasus and the TRIPP project (“Trump route”).

“The Americans are counting on their strikes bringing the state to its knees. But Iran, thanks to its strategic depth, is capable of enduring attacks for years. Missile production is carried out in underground complexes built thousands of years ago, making them virtually unreachable. The ballistic potential is preserved and replenished, and we have clearly underestimated their capabilities,” Asatryan said.

In the expert’s view, the United States finds itself in a strategic deadlock, and this represents the worst period in Trump’s political biography.

“The Americans are in a strategic deadlock, they do not know how to proceed. This is evident from Trump’s statements and posts. This is perhaps the most difficult political period of his career; he is in a challenging situation, including psychologically,” Asatryan noted.

Speaking about the likelihood of a US ground operation in Iran, the expert said that America does not have sufficient forces for a full-scale invasion.

“Tens of thousands of American troops are already in the region, but that is not enough for a large-scale operation, hundreds of thousands would be needed. A limited seizure of islands is possible, but it would change nothing strategically. The US and Israel are looking for ways to pressure Iran and the IRGC, but breaking Iran’s strategy has proven impossible: the initiative remains with Tehran, just as it did in the previous twelve-day war, when it was the US and Israel who asked for a ceasefire,” Asatryan said.

In the expert’s assessment, the United States is the chief loser of this war, while Israel is for now achieving certain objectives of its own.

“Iran has been weakened militarily and institutionally, and the Muslim countries of the region have been set against one another. Israel managed to strike at the economic model of the Gulf monarchies, but remains motivated and resilient itself. The current US administration is the most pro-Israel in history, and if the ‘Iranian question’ cannot be definitively resolved now, another opportunity may not arise. Despite its losses, Iran may emerge from the war as the prevailing force. The Israeli air force is powerful, but the scenario of the twelve-day war is repeating itself: they are avoiding deep incursions into Iranian airspace, as they are not confident in the accuracy of their intelligence or the complete destruction of targets,” Asatryan noted.

Asked whether this war could lead to a regime change in Iran, the expert said that the future of Iran’s political system will be decided by Iranians alone.

“The end of the regime is only possible when the majority of Iranians decide to abandon the Islamic Republic and its revolutionary course. The alternative is a multi-million-strong ground invasion and prolonged fighting. For now the regime is strong, controls the situation, and even discontented segments of the population are rallying around the flag. But the future remains uncertain, not everyone is satisfied with such a system,” Asatryan said.

The expert noted that the Middle East war could spell the end of the TRIPP project.

“I think this project can be written off. If the Islamic Republic survives, the scenario is clear. If Iran falls and the Islamic Republic ceases to exist, replaced by some pro-Western political force or something else, I don’t know, then the very purpose of this project is lost. So I think that, at least within the parameters we currently have regarding this war, TRIPP can for now be written off,” Asatryan concluded.