The situation around Iran remains deadlocked: Vasily Kuznetsov

Vasily Kuznetsov, Deputy Director for Academic Affairs at the Institute ofOriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, commented to Alpha News on the situation in the Middle East within the framework of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) conference “Conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa: Escalation Factors and Trajectories of Transformation.”
“The situation is very dire. The conflict has been going on for two weeks now and will apparently continue. On the one hand, there are no prospects for a swift de-escalation, except for the possibility that Donald Trump might suddenly declare his victory and call it a day. That can never be ruled out. But given the current dynamics, the conflict could drag on for at least several more weeks. After that, we should be talking either about a resolution or about a transition into other forms, including a ground presence. A ground deployment would be a serious political blow to Trump domestically, within the U.S.political arena,” Kuznetsov said.
According to the expert, Iran currently has no intention of backing down, though its available options remain limited.” As for Iran, it is made obvious that it has no intention of surrendering at this point. What exactly ‘surrendering’ would even look like inthis context is itself unclear, which is why Iran is responding from a maximalist position. However, Iran’s toolkit and range of options are constrained. We are talking about strikes on U.S. assets in the region, strikes on U.S. allies in the region, and the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz. That is, frankly, about it for now. Yes, these carry very serious economic consequences for the world significant geoeconomic repercussions for global oil markets and international logistics. But strictly speaking, the damage inflicted on the U.S. and Israel at this point remains very limited. The situation is therefore largely at a dead-end. It will clearly drag on, with maximally negative consequences for all parties involved,” Kuznetsov concluded.