There may be some kind of collusion between Pashinyan, Aliyev and Erdogan over ‘Zangezur corridor’ — Dmitry Suslov

Speaking with Alpha News, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University Dmitry Suslov commented on the crisis in Moscow’s relations with Baku and Yerevan, Russia’s policy in the South Caucasus, as well as the US position on the conflict in Ukraine and relations with Russia. According to the expert, the crisis with Azerbaijan is of an openly political nature, which is being artificially inflated in Baku.

“It is obvious that the ongoing arrests are a tool, but not the cause of this crisis. That is, Baku is aiming—at the very least—for heightened tensions, and at most, the breakdown of relations with Russia. On the one hand, after Azerbaijan completely recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh and Russian peacekeepers left there, it was clear that Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus had generally decreased, so, probably, at this stage Baku came to the opinion or conclusion that now it can afford what it could not afford before. Furthermore, Russia’s growing dependence on Azerbaijan for circumventing sanctions—particularly along logistical routes—is a factor. The North–South transport corridor, crucial for Russia’s access to the Indian Ocean, runs through Azerbaijan. I believe Baku has taken all of this into account and concluded that, from its perspective, Russia is now more dependent on Azerbaijan than vice versa,” Suslov said.

The expert noted that Azerbaijan’s interest in initiating this crisis may lie in political preparation for solving the problem of the so-called “Zangezur corridor”.

“It is important for Azerbaijan to achieve the implementation of the ‘Zangezur corridor’—not through Iran, but through Armenian territory, and Russia is hindering this process. Russia would like this corridor to pass either through Iranian territory or through Armenian territory, but under Russian control, as was agreed upon at the time. Azerbaijan is obviously not happy with this. It wants this corridor to be under Azerbaijani control,” Suslov emphasized.