Trump is now trapped – Pavel Danilin

In an interview with Alpha News, Russian political scientist Pavel Danilin commented on the recent negotiations between the US and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia and also suggested how the current White House administration might influence political processes in the South Caucasus.

“Trump now realizes that he is in an unpleasant situation—a trap, in fact. That is, the Russian side tells him: ‘We agree, but let’s address our concerns.’ But there is no answer to provide. Now Witkoff has returned to the White House. We are waiting for him to talk to Trump to convey to him all our legitimate concerns and demands.

It is quite difficult to predict Trump. On the one hand, he understands that we are talking about a negotiation process. Both parties must be serious and willing to negotiate. On the other hand, he made statements that require him to demonstrate results. While he can outwardly demonstrate this result with Ukraine, he cannot do the same with Russia.

This creates a dilemma for him. So, he understands that the Ukrainian side, along with the French, Germans, and British backing them and encouraging war, is not capable of negotiating. They are not a serious party to the deal, they have already violated agreements multiple times,” the political scientist said.

Analyzing Russia’s relations with Georgia and Armenia, the expert concluded that friendly relations with Moscow are beneficial to the South Caucasus, while confrontation only causes harm.

“Under the Democrats, of course, the situation in the Caucasus was constantly and consistently deteriorating. They tried to drag Georgia into the conflict, they pulled Armenia away from Russia, and this, of course, did not benefit security in the Caucasus. Now Armenia, basically, adopts a stance of maximum distancing both from Russia and post-Soviet integration institutions, which undermines security in the Caucasus, particularly for Armenia. Georgia, unlike Armenia, chose the path of minimal confrontation with Russia, resulting in increased investments, tourism and economic development,” Danilin emphasized.

Touching upon Azerbaijan’s recent aggressive behavior towards Russia, the political scientist described it as boorish, noting that a response will come in due time.

“I think we are witnessing conflicting trends in the Caucasus and Transcaucasia. This includes, among other things, Azerbaijan’s growing opposition to Russia, marked by extremely provocative actions. But Russia’s hands are tied. Therefore, the only thing we can do is erect monuments to Aliyev in response to the unfriendly gestures of the Azerbaijanis. But do not think that Russia has forgotten all of this. Russia remembers everything. It’s just that right now we lack significant leverage over Azerbaijan. And we don’t really want to put pressure, just as we don’t really want to sever relations,” he noted.

Danilin also touched upon the desire of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s entourage to be friends with Turkey and Azerbaijan, expressing skepticism about the success of this initiative. “As for Armenia, you cannot force someone to love you. You see, we cannot force Armenians to love Russians and we are not going to force Armenians to love Russians. We cannot force Armenians to be more Armenians than they are, so if Armenians wish to befriend Turks, why not? This is not even bad. They may become friends to some extent, maybe there will be fewer mutual claims. Maybe the events of a hundred years ago will be forgotten. However, I doubt this, just as I doubt it in the case of Azerbaijan,” he concluded.