US-Russia relations under Trump administration will be ‘sour’ – Boris Mezhuev

Speaking with Alpha News, Russian political scientist and Americanist Boris Mezhuev commented on the recent US presidential election and the effect Donald Trump’s victory will have on Washington’s policy towards Russia and the South Caucasus.

“I do not expect any drastic changes. The main changes will be personnel. There is Project 2025 that Trump is going to implement, where the main point is the change of the middle level of the political bureaucracy. This will be a great psychological trauma for many people who will lose their jobs who tried to work outside the party. I think that transgender people will be forgotten for 4 years. In any case, it will be strictly said that this phenomenon should not be spread in the army, in sports, and so on; it should not be given some legal basis,” Mezhuev said.

According to him, Trump’s future administration will proceed from two main imperatives in its relations with Russia.

“Relations with Russia are a complex issue. I would divide them into two parts. First, the end of the military conflict in Ukraine, which Trump promised to do in 24 hours. He will not do it in 24 hours, but I think he will really try to do it. That is, he will try to move to the negotiation process and achieve a ceasefire—at least, a global ceasefire. Well, you see, some shootouts and shelling will still happen; it is unlikely that a ceasefire will be achieved. Secondly, he will try to cut off Russia from China and offer it all sorts of benefits, including the lifting of sanctions in exchange for some more binding conditions in relation to the West, a joint declaration that Taiwan cannot be attacked. Russia will not agree to this, of course.

Russia has a very strong immunity here and strong fears that the West will let it down. And most importantly, everyone understands that Trump is only here for 4 years. In 4 years, someone else will come, not necessarily Trump’s vice president, JD Vance. It could be a more or less prepared Democrat. And we will go back to square one, and Russophobia will win. Therefore, there is not so much trust, and I do not expect any strategic turn here. This will lead to Trump still taking an anti-Russian position, which does not mean that he will not be able to end this conflict. That is, I think the relationship will be ‘sour’,” the political scientist stressed.

According to Boris Mezhuev, Trump will act as a peacemaker and will treat the processes in the South Caucasus based on this.

“Trump promised to bring peace everywhere. Trump likes the image of a peacemaker. I do not think he will stir up conflicts; I believe he will rather take some peaceful initiatives from China and try, in general, to solve these problems peacefully. So, I think that the issue of the so-called ‘Zangezur corridor’ will also be resolved diplomatically without escalation. In any case, if there is another attempt at some kind of military solution, I think Trump will strongly oppose it,” Mezhuev concluded.