We will see burning Middle East – Movses Ghazaryan

Political scientist Movses Ghazaryan spoke to Alpha News about the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, and the risks it poses for neighboring regions.

“It is quite difficult to predict when the current conflict in the Middle East will end. However, it is clear that the hot phase will most likely continue for the next three to four weeks, or even longer, unless Russia, China, and the United States manage to reach some kind of diplomatic agreement to freeze the conflict,” the expert said.

According to Ghazaryan, developments could follow two directions.

“Where can this situation go, and what are the possible scenarios? The first, and in my view the most likely scenario: if the level of confrontation is not reduced and the conflict potential is not diminished, we will most likely see the chaotic destabilization of the entire Middle East. This threatens to weaken economic ties, create problems for numerous economic projects, including in the energy sector. Overall, we will most likely see a burning Middle East. And of course, this will strongly and fundamentally hit almost all Middle Eastern states, including the Gulf monarchies.

The second option: if a very strong diplomatic initiative to freeze the conflict emerges in the region, we may see a gradual decline in conflict potential. This does not mean that the contradictions between Israel and Iran will be resolved, but most likely there will be movement toward freezing the current conflict,” Ghazaryan emphasized.

Ghazaryan sees potential for the conflict to spread to other countries, including the South Caucasus.

“Most likely, we will need to be prepared for the possibility that the conflict situation may extend beyond the Middle East. To some extent, the activation around Iran of various terrorist groups or structures will create risks for the South Caucasus and for Russia, as well as for other countries in the region and beyond. We have already seen various strikes, for example, against Cyprus, and so on. I am not saying that this will necessarily be carried out by the Iranian side, but we know that different proxy groups sometimes get out of the control of their sponsors and leaders, both on the Western side and, for example, on the Iranian side,” the political scientist concluded.