Yerevan is rushing to sign agreement with Baku to close page of Artsakh – Movses Ghazaryan

Speaking with Alpha News, Russian expert on international relations Movses Ghazaryan commented on the intensification of the Yerevan-Baku negotiation process, the prospects for relations between Armenia and Iran, as well as the crisis in Armenian-Russian relations.

“It is difficult to predict the possibility of signing a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan since this largely depends on the regional situation and third parties. Because Yerevan has been oriented toward the countries of the Western community lately on all issues of strategic importance for Armenia.

Yerevan is rushing to sign this agreement to close the Artsakh page, the Artsakh period in Armenian history, to please its Western partners, to come to Brussels and Washington and declare that it has resolved all the issues and is ready for long-term integration,” Ghazaryan said.

“However, Baku, I believe, is not in such a hurry, because the regional situation and the situation in bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Russia are more favorable. In general, Azerbaijan does not need to hurry so much. Potential risks for Azerbaijan, if we talk about the regional situation, may be related to difficulties in relations with Iran,” he added.

According to the expert, the risks created by Azerbaijan could be very negative for Armenia.

“Armenia has now entered a period in its history where its position is very much dependent on international players. These are not only such major centers of power as Russia and the United States, but also, for example, Ankara, Tehran, and Baku. For Yerevan now, unfortunately, Baku is one of the centers of power that must be oriented towards, because the risks created by Azerbaijan can be very negative for Armenia. Armenia is trying to open a new page with the countries of the Western community, a new page in development and in relations with the countries of the Western community,” Ghazaryan emphasized.

When asked whether the West is ready to replace Russia in the security sphere, the expert said that the West will not provide military support to Armenia.

“The Western community expects to ensure Yerevan’s security not through direct military support but through building a certain balance of power, in which Yerevan will not be asked anything in particular. As for ensuring security, they do not think in the same categories that we think in here in Russia, taking into account the specifics of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and Armenian-Turkish relations,” Ghazaryan noted.

When it comes to relations between Armenia and Russia, according to the political scientist, a lot depends on the international situation.

“A lot depends on the situation within the countries of the Western community, on the regional situation. Yerevan’s strategic policy, in my opinion, has been adopted, and this is a policy toward gradual distancing from Moscow and ultimately a rupture in relations.

In my opinion, this is, unfortunately, true, but so far Yerevan has not fully integrated into the system offered by the countries of the Western community, has not fully normalized relations with Azerbaijan, and has not opened a new page in history with Turkey. That is, until this happens, Armenia will have it both ways. Plus, Armenia understands perfectly well that before this all begins, it cannot abruptly break off relations with Russia.

Russia, in my opinion, has an approach towards the Yerevan authorities that is comparable to what was with Georgia.

For some reason, many in Armenia believe that partnership with Russia means being a puppet. But this is fundamentally wrong. Russia is interested in strong partners who can take part of the responsibility for the development of political and economic processes,” Ghazaryan concluded.