Yuri Kotenok: I do not think that Russia will calmly watch if there is a direct threat to Armenia

War correspondent Yuri Kotenok commented to Alpha News on Russia’s possible actions in the event of an escalation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

“The deep crisis in Armenian-Russian relations in recent days probably came as a surprise to the uninitiated. But the entire policy of the current official Yerevan and even a superficial analysis of its statements in recent years indicate that it took a deliberate course to distance itself from Russia.

Anti-Russian policies and sentiments are being consciously encouraged. I know what I’m talking about. More and more people are asking Russia about what is going on, but they don’t ask the Armenian authorities.

It is difficult to say how Russia will behave. Of course, I’m not saying that Russia will calmly watch when there is an immediate threat to Armenia. But the key question is: how ready are the Armenians themselves to resist this total onslaught and pressure that is coming at them from several sides? In fact, Armenia is now trapped, if not surrounded by the Azerbaijani armed forces.

Honestly, I don’t understand how will the Armenians be able to resist this threat on their own when the CSTO representative has been recalled or when it has been officially stated that the CSTO does not protect the interests of Armenia? I repeat, the situation is alarming.

As for Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azerbaijani side will try to disrupt the work of Russian peacekeepers. As we know, there are about 30 posts there monitoring the demarcation line, and in the event of an escalation, the Azerbaijanis, in my opinion, will not conduct direct hostilities with Russian peacekeepers. They will try to block deployment points, observation posts, and the base, and, in the end, they will move towards Stepanakert, completely blocking it from several sides. They will begin to carry out cleansings, identifying unwanted people, those who participated in the hostilities.

As for Armenia, if we take into account that Azerbaijan’s appetites also extend to the coast of Armenia’s key source of water – Lake Sevan, then we can expect advances along the perimeter of the border and the opening of the so-called Zangezur corridor. Then the route that connects Yerevan with the northern regions will be under threat. In fact, communications through Georgia to Russia are also under threat.

And the opening of the “Zangezur Corridor” in Baku’s interpretation sounds as follows: “When we are making a road here, we do not take into account either the opinion of the Armenian side, or the opinion of anyone else.” A very complex situation.

Here, Iran’s position is also a significant key point, but I would not rely on Iran in the sense that it is making loud statements that it will not allow changes to the territorial integrity of Armenia. Iran can observe what is happening and can intervene in events in a certain way. Because Azerbaijan has secured the support of key players not only in the region, but also in the entire planet, and this is Turkiye, Israel and the United States. There is constant movement here and, frankly speaking, I do not see the levers, at least military ones, through which Armenia will be able to radically resolve the situation in its favor. I don’t mean the desire of the Armenians to fight, I mean the technical capabilities,” he noted.