Will Iran be divided? Sergei Melkonian on possible scenarios and regional situation

In an interview with Alpha News, Middle East expert Sergei Melkonian addressed the course of Iran–US negotiations and the possibility of military escalation, noting that the process already shows phased progress.

According to him, it is wrong to claim that the negotiations have yielded no results.

“In the first stage, the parties discussed the principles of negotiations; in the second, the approaches; and during the planned third meeting, the Iranian side is expected to present its vision regarding the actual agreement, so that the previously formed approaches can be consolidated in documentary form and allow for the discussion of more tangible issues,” Melkonian said.

The expert recalled that in the initial stages of negotiations, there were serious disagreements between the parties, especially regarding which topics should be included on the agenda. These centered on the nuclear program, the development of ballistic missiles, and the activities of proxy forces in the region.

“The US is also reducing its presence in certain directions, particularly in Syria, where Iranian forces have significant access,” the expert said.

According to Sergei Melkonian, this move may signal an effort to minimize potential losses and prepare for a military scenario. At the same time, he emphasized that the demonstration of force is not limited to purely military objectives.

He noted that Washington is applying two main tools of pressure: military presence, and informational and psychological pressure.