Why doesn’t Iran bomb Turkey?

The answer lies in a pragmatic recognition that Tehran and Ankara today face a common and extremely dangerous challenge—the Kurds. Despite their historical rivalry, both capitals see the Kurdish factor as an existential threat to their territorial integrity.

Recent reports from CNN and Reuters suggest that the Trump administration and the CIA view Kurdish formations as a key tool for destabilizing Iran from within. Washington’s plan is simple: use armed units in western Iran to tie down the army and provoke a civil uprising. In this situation, Turkey would likely side with Iran, since any strengthening of the Kurds or expansion of their autonomy—from Iraq into Iranian territory—would set an unacceptable precedent for Ankara.

Regionally, a paradoxical situation is unfolding. Abu Muhammad al‑Julani, who became the de facto president of Syria after the fall of Bashar al‑Assad’s regime, was until recently fighting fierce battles with the Kurds. Yet under US pressure, a temporary and highly unnatural alliance could emerge, with Julani and Kurdish forces coordinating against Iran.

For Turkey, such a development would be a nightmare: the union of radical groups and Kurdish nationalists on its borders could force Recep Tayyip Erdogan to side with Tehran to prevent chaos that would inevitably spill into Turkish territory.

By pursuing its own interests, Washington effectively disregards Ankara’s position, which may only push Turkey toward closer cooperation with Iran’s leadership. The military logic of the current conflict imposes strict deadlines. The US and Israeli plan to quickly disable Iran’s missile silos and drone factories is effective only if carried out as a blitzkrieg, accompanied by the collapse of Iran’s command system. If the issue is not resolved within 10–15 days, the Western coalition will have to shift to a prolonged ground phase, where Kurdish “proxies” will serve as the main fighting force.

Iran, aware of this, has adopted an asymmetric strategy. Instead of trying to seize air superiority, Tehran targets critical US communication and radar infrastructure in the region. Attacks on SATCOM terminals and AN/TPY‑2 radars in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia are intended to blind American forces and make continued operations prohibitively costly.

For now, the US and Israel retain a technical advantage, but time is against them. As American bases in the Gulf lose control and Turkey considers shielding Iran’s rear out of fear of a Kurdish uprising, the strategy of a “quick victory” over Tehran risks collapsing.

Think about it…