Progress in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is being shaped by electoral considerations: Andrei Areshev

Andrei Areshev, political analyst and expert at the Strategic Culture Foundation, commented on the visit of Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Mustafayev to Armenia and on Armenian-Russian relations in a live broadcast on Alpha News.

“There is, of course, a formal basis for the visit. As far as is known, Deputy Prime Ministers Mustafayev and Grigoryan are co-chairs of the bilateral commission on the delimitation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is not the first meeting of such kind, the previous one was held in Gabala, Azerbaijan. The current visit appears to be a reciprocal one, but in an expanded format, with the participation of major business representatives from both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Significant entrepreneurs, exporters and importers from the Armenian side were present. One can say with a high degree of confidence that everything taking place on the Armenian-Azerbaijani front has a clear electoral dimension and will continue to do so going forward. Right down to each humanitarian gesture, reports of which are already emerging. Baku believes that such steps could work in favor of Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party, whom the Azerbaijani authorities view as the most convenient partners in the current negotiation process,” Areshev said.

According to the expert, Russia viewed normalization of relations as a means of stabilizing the region, but Turkey is pursuing its own agenda.

“Russia understands the complexity of the situation and is trying to strengthen ties with Azerbaijan. The so-called 2025 crisis has barely affected trade and economic relations, on the contrary, both sides are seeking to develop them. But at the same time, steps are being taken that Moscow is not happy about: Zelensky’s visit, the military-technical cooperation agreement. Moscow is operating under difficult conditions, and this was foreseeable. The example of Georgia shows how economic projects with Azerbaijan and Turkey strengthened the Saakashvili government and its defense capabilities. Even then, Turkey was demonstrating its readiness to actively defend the interests of its allies. Today, the role of Turkey and Azerbaijan in reorienting Armenia toward cross-border projects is significant. Such plans were previously put on hold due to the Karabakh issue, but now they are coming back. Russia viewed normalization as a way to stabilize the region, but Turkey is strategically pursuing its own goals. Any move by Moscow is perceived by Ankara either as weakness or as an opportunity to expand its influence. This is what makes Turkey such a difficult partner,” the expert stressed.

Commenting on the actions of Armenia’s current authorities, the political analyst noted that in 2018–2019 they behaved in a rather provocative manner, undermining a negotiation process in which Russia was trying to find a compromise.

“We know perfectly well that both Baku and Yerevan have levelled accusations at Moscow, that it manipulated the conflict for decades, exploited its role as mediator, and prevented the parties from reaching an agreement by using Karabakh as a lever of influence. Such sentiments do exist. The parties have now effectively arrived at peace on the basis that there are no longer any Armenians in Karabakh. Armenia’s current authorities present this as a major achievement. But we remember that in 2018–2019 they behaved in a rather provocative manner, undermining a negotiation process in which Russia was trying to find a compromise. So the issue is a complex one. Making emotional judgments and placing blame on someone a priori, whether Russia or any other party, is not entirely fair,” the political analyst said.