There will be major problems in Armenia-Russia relations: Dmitry Solonnikov

Dmitry Solonnikov, political analyst, commented to Alpha News on the words of Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, regarding Armenia’s possible withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union and accession to the EU, and also analyzed the possible consequences of these steps.

“Galuzin’s statement was made within the framework of the general concept and general policy of Russia, which has already been articulated repeatedly at the highest level, including by President Vladimir Putin. Indeed, it is impossible to simultaneously remain within the EAEU economic zone, receiving preferences there, and join the European Union, receiving preferences there as well: it is one or the other. A customs border with corresponding taxation of all goods must exist somewhere. It is impossible to receive cheap electricity from Russia, cheap gas and oil, have the Russian market open, and at the same time receive goods from the European Union, as if trading here and there. This position has been stated repeatedly. It has already been said that, if it comes to that, the EAEU will begin reviewing the procedure for terminating Armenia’s status in the organization. Most likely, if the elections proceed as the European Union is planning to dictate, and Armenia continues to conclude agreements with the European Union, the EAEU will respond accordingly,” Solonnikov believes.

In the opinion of the editorial guest, the damage from Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU is incomparable for Russia and Armenia respectively.

“If Armenia were to leave the EAEU, it would be Armenia’s economy that collapses, not Russia’s. Russia’s economy would most likely not even notice. In terms of supplies, sales of electricity, oil, and gas to Armenia would decrease, but all of it would cost three to four times more than it does now. So it is not a tragedy, but it is an inconvenience for Russia,” the Alpha News interlocutor emphasized.

The political analyst predicts a sharp decline in Armenia’s social and economic standing in the event of a break with the EAEU and rapprochement with the EU.

“There will be problems with agricultural production, with the production of goods and services, the Russian market will close, there will be no money transfers from Russia, no Russian tourists. There will be major problems, without a doubt. Can one call it a complete catastrophe? It is a very noticeable deterioration of the economic situation, and consequently of the social situation as well. The EU is not currently in a position nor in an economic condition to flood all neighbouring regions with money, as it did in the 1990s and early 2000s. That is no longer the case. So Armenia should hardly expect a ‘golden shower’ from Europe. The golden shower will not come, but the promises will. And then people will watch the news on television, read the corresponding newspapers, all dissent will be banned, information reaching citizens will be strictly moderated. And they will live in that information world. That information world will paint for them a happy road to a bright future. They will probably believe it,” the expert concluded.