The struggle is still ahead: Alexander Shatilov on the prospects of Armenia’s European integration

Alexander Shatilov, professor of political science at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, shared his commentary with Alpha News on Armenia’s aspiration to move toward the European Union.

“At the moment, the question of isolating Russia is indeed relevant for Europe, but that does not mean Europe will actively support Armenia, compensate it for any costs, or provide loans. Because, first of all, Europe is not itself in the best shape right now, and secondly, we can see that Western countries guard their own interests very carefully, while everyone else’s interests are treated as an afterthought. In this regard, one can hardly expect large-scale investment or any particularly generous support for Armenia from them,” the expert believes.

In the political scientist’s view, admitting new members to the EU is a lengthy process, and not all of Armenian society shares the authorities’ desire to move toward Europe.

“As for joining the European Union, we can see that the EU, despite various declarations and so forth, is extremely reluctant to admit new members at the moment. A certain era of large-scale EU integration is, by and large, over. In this situation, we can see that even de facto, a number of European states are keeping countries like Albania, Montenegro, and others in the waiting room, to say nothing of Ukraine and Moldova, which are periodically dangled the prospect of EU membership. But it is clear to almost everyone that the path there will be, to put it mildly, a long one. Turkey, which has been knocking on that door for so many years and still hasn’t been let in, has nearly given up on joining the EU altogether. So in my view, this is a very distant prospect.

Although during the recent elections this topic did feature prominently, it was almost the core theme of Nikol Pashinyan’s campaign and that of his supporters. And the ruling elite and ruling movement did win. But it seems to me that even in terms of domestic relations, things will not be straightforward, because a significant portion of Armenian society is nonetheless connected to or oriented toward Russia, and there are numerous and very influential Armenian diaspora communities within the Russian Federation for whom such a drift is also not particularly welcome. So I think the struggle on this front is still ahead,” the expert concluded.