Beniamin Matevosyan: Have Pashinyan and Erdogan turned against Israel?

(Why Tel Aviv recalled the Armenian Genocide)

The current deformation of the geopolitical architecture linking the Middle East and the South Caucasus is forcing Israel’s leadership to change its foreign policy priorities. For many years, Tel Aviv built a strategy based on pragmatism, consciously ignoring historical justice for the sake of political and geopolitical gains. Within this paradigm, the tragedy of the Armenian people, the Armenian Genocide, was viewed solely as an element of political bargaining. However, under the pressure of new regional challenges, the old approaches have lost their effectiveness, and turning to the Armenian issue is now becoming a key mechanism for the Israeli elite to protect its own position amid the rapid collapse of former alliances.

At first, Israeli officials were guided by a reluctance to completely sever contacts with Ankara, and later the interests of the Azerbaijani lobby came to the forefront, acting actively through Israeli parties, including the structure of Avigdor Lieberman. As a result, official Jerusalem maneuvered for a long time, disregarding historical realities in order to preserve energy and military advantages in its relations with Ankara.

Moreover, Israel, through its own actions, helped Ankara reshape the architecture of the South Caucasus: large-scale supplies of modern Israeli weaponry allowed the Aliyev regime to establish control over Karabakh. These events reshaped the balance of power, and Tel Aviv believed that this regional reformatting would help it, “at the critical hour,” to strike Iran through the South Caucasus. But not everything went according to Israeli plans.

After joint US-Israeli attempts to neutralize the Iranian factor by force failed to succeed (the regime in Iran did not fall), the White House began to doubt Israel’s ability to control the Middle East on its own. The administration of Donald Trump, US President, reoriented itself toward finding a more powerful ally, apparently placing its bet on Turkey. During recent talks in the Oval Office with Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, the American leader openly called Recep Tayyip Erdogan his friend and expressed readiness to make serious concessions to strengthen ties with Ankara. In particular, Trump allowed for the possibility of Ankara’s return to the F-35 fighter jet supply program ahead of the NATO summit in the Turkish capital, which effectively gives Erdogan the status of the leading contender for regional leadership. This cannot fail to concern not only Greece, but also Israel.

In this new reality, the unanimous decision of the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister, to support the initiative of Gideon Saar, Foreign Minister, on recognizing the Armenian Genocide is taking on the character of a geopolitical maneuver. Whereas Netanyahu previously used the “Armenian Genocide card” for situational pressure on Ankara, the matter now concerns a large-scale lobbying campaign. Israel’s goal is to block Trump’s excessive rapprochement with Turkey. To this end, Jewish organizations in the US, including AIPAC, are seeking to consolidate efforts with other influential forces in Congress. The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), together with the Greek lobby, has extensive experience in derailing American defense contracts for Ankara.

By declaring the recognition of historical truth and the rejection of its denial by the Turkish government a “moral duty,” Israel is trying to use the Armenian factor as a tool for containing Turkish influence in Washington. In Tel Aviv, it is remembered that Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act is not merely one of the most well-known and precedent-setting documents in the history of American diplomacy in the South Caucasus, but also something Israel now aspires to apply toward Turkey. Adopted by the US Congress in October 1992, Section 907 blocked any direct US government assistance to Azerbaijan (including economic aid and, most importantly, military assistance and arms supplies).

As a result of this decision, Azerbaijan became the only post-Soviet republic to be officially denied direct support from Washington after the collapse of the USSR. Nevertheless, for Israel, this strategy carries enormous risks. The government’s approval of this initiative, which the Knesset still has to confirm, strikes a blow against Ankara’s official historical doctrine. However, an even more dangerous reaction may come from Azerbaijan, for which the alliance with Turkey is an inviolable priority. A radical shift in Israeli rhetoric will inevitably provoke sharp discontent in Baku, putting at risk the stability of multibillion-dollar military contracts. Whether Israel can preserve its partnership with Azerbaijan while simultaneously using the Armenian lever against Erdogan and countering Iran will become a key challenge for regional security in the near future.

As for Armenia, with his statement that “Yerevan does not consider it appropriate to react to the decision of the Israeli government,” Pashinyan made clear that in the conflict between Turkey and Israel, he supports Ankara’s position. Nothing new, though…

Think about it…