Escalation was bound to happen: Oleg Makarenko

Oleg Makarenko, political scientist and Middle East expert, commented to Alpha News on the latest round of escalation surrounding the US-Iran conflict.

“The Iranian conflict is now gaining more and more momentum. How long can it last? This escalation was, in principle, expected. Why? Because none of the parties to this conflict wanted to come out of it as the loser. For Trump, the absence of a clause on Iran’s nuclear weapons and nuclear program in general would count as a loss, and he wouldn’t have agreed to other terms. And another key point for him is the opening of Hormuz, which had been open before but was blocked by Iran as a result of this conflict. For Iran, Hormuz is one of its main levers of pressure on Trump and on the entire international community, aimed at getting them to lift economic and political sanctions so that Iran can once again join the family of nations on an equal footing, both economically and politically. That’s why opening and regulating the strait were the main issues meant to be resolved within the memorandum, but the memorandum didn’t deliver on any of that, so Iran kept control of it, which for the United States amounted to something close to defeat. In this situation, escalation was bound to happen. The only question was when. Will it continue? It asolutely will. Why? Because Iran has no intention of opening it, and the United States doesn’t want to consider itself the loser either. For Trump, this is a disaster,” Makarenko said.

According to the expert, the situation in the Middle East will only continue to expand and draw in new countries in the region.

“It’s not in Trump’s interest to be in conflict with the Gulf states either, but pay attention to one important detail. Saudi Arabia struck the Yemeni Houthis, hitting Sanaa. This shows that the Gulf states are running out of patience on one hand, while on the other, they’re already too dependent both on the United States and, economically, on fuel supplies. They’re currently in an extremely disadvantageous position. So they’d like to end this conflict, but Trump won’t let them, he wants them to get involved in the conflict and take part in it as equal partners. That’s why the Gulf states will try to put some kind of pressure on Iran, including through strikes on the Houthis. But all of this will end very, very badly for almost everyone. So in the near term, we’ll only see further escalation, including on the Yemen front,” the expert concluded.