Ground operation against Iran is not in Trump’s interest right now: Irina Fedorova

Irina Fedorova, senior research fellow at the Center for the Study of the Middle and Near East, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, commented to Alpha News on the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

“I believe the situation in which the US continues to carry out very powerful bombing strikes on Iranian infrastructure, primarily infrastructure tied to Iranian oil exports, will persist. That’s because, for Trump right now, despite all his threatening statements, launching an armed ground operation against Iran isn’t in his interest. The consequences could result in a large number of American soldiers killed, which, on the eve of the midterm elections this November, would create an extremely unfavorable situation both for Trump himself and for the Republican Party as a whole,” Fedorova said.

According to the expert, further escalation could lead to a broadening of the conflict’s geography and growing risks of a large-scale military confrontation.

“Iran will respond, of course, within the limits of its capabilities. Iran cannot inflict any serious damage on the US directly, since Iranian missiles aren’t capable of reaching US territory. However, Iran can and will continue striking American bases, as well as the countries hosting these bases, first and foremost the Gulf states, for as long as it retains the capacity to do so. This is a very difficult situation, because, first and foremost, it is Iranian citizens who are dying. Citizens of the countries hosting the American bases that Iran is striking are also often killed.

Moreover, any serious provocation, whether it’s an attack on American bases that doesn’t fit the overall picture of the conflict, or an especially powerful strike on Iran resulting in the deaths of members of the Iranian leadership or elite, could trigger an entirely unpredictable turn of events. As a result, the fighting could not only intensify but escalate into a far larger-scale armed confrontation,” Fedorova concluded.