Beniamin Matevosyan: A signal to Putin? The reason for the attack on Robert Kocharyan

(Why is Pashinyan attacking the second president right now?)

The actions of Armenian security forces against Robert Kocharyan, the second president of the Republic of Armenia, and members of his family go far beyond routine procedural pressure or another stage of internal political struggle. The attempt to exert harsh pressure on the ex‑president’s family coincided with the remarks of his son, Levon Kocharyan, who recently outright called Nikol Pashinyan a traitor and a blasphemer. However, to view what is happening as a mere emotional reaction by the prime minister to harsh words would be a naive oversimplification. Kocharyan Jr.’s statement is merely a simple statement of a long‑obvious fact, and it is not the root cause of the morning searches and detentions. The origins of this attack lie in much deeper geopolitical processes and a fundamental crisis of Armenian statehood.

To understand the true motives of the current authorities, it is necessary to analyze what is happening in the global context of the large‑scale confrontation between Pashinyan and Russia, as well as in the context of his consistent compliance with Baku’s external demands regarding the amendment of Armenia’s Constitution and the cession of territories. It is obvious that the current prime minister is trying to solve a complex problem. On the one hand, he needs to completely clear the internal political field and neutralize Kocharyan’s position as one of the key symbols of resistance to pro‑Turkish and pro‑Azerbaijani initiatives. On the other hand, Pashinyan is frantically searching for trump cards to use in foreign policy bargaining with Moscow, trying to reverse a trend that is extremely unfavorable for him.

A key marker of what is happening is Pashinyan’s keynote speech yesterday in the National Assembly. From his statements, it became abundantly clear that, ahead of the December EAEU summit, the Armenian leader has decided to raise the stakes in the confrontation with the Kremlin as much as possible. The morning forceful attack on the family of the second president was a direct continuation of this belligerent rhetoric. Pashinyan is deliberately demonstrating a willingness to go all‑in, believing that tough steps within the country will add weight to his position in the eyes of external players.

The main goal of this dangerous game is to create a so‑called “exchange fund” for the upcoming negotiations with Vladimir Putin. By detaining and arresting prominent opposition politicians, Pashinyan hopes to create a lever of pressure on the Russian leadership. The Yerevan authorities are extremely interested in securing economic concessions from Moscow, getting Armenian goods back on the Russian market, and blocking the introduction of new sensitive sanctions. According to Pashinyan’s plan, it is precisely the arrested opposition leaders and figures of Kocharyan’s stature who should become the commodity that can be exchanged for concessions from the Russian Federation in the course of personal bargaining with President Vladimir Putin.

However, this strategy contains a critical flaw. Such a demonstration of strength will change nothing in the Kremlin’s strategic calculations. Russia’s position on Pashinyan has long been established and will remain unchanged: in Moscow, he continues to be perceived as an illegitimate figure leading the country to disaster. An attempt to build an “exchange fund” of political prisoners will not work as a tool of blackmail. Economic and political restrictions will not only remain in place but will likely be intensified in response to another round of escalation.

Moreover, by raising the stakes in this way, Pashinyan is achieving exactly the opposite effect. In response to the use of force against Kocharyan and the ongoing severance of ties with the alliance, the package of demands that Moscow puts forward to Yerevan will only expand.

This list will inevitably be supplemented with new stringent points, including those directly related to the future political status of Pashinyan himself. The system of bargaining he has built is collapsing, turning the attack on the second president not into a display of strength, but into a clear sign of panic ahead of the upcoming December summit.

Think about it…