Moscow expects strategic clarity from Pashinyan on relations with Russia: Sergey Stankevich

Sergey Stankevich, political analyst, commented to Alpha News on what Moscow and Yerevan expect from the upcoming visit of Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, to Moscow, and how productive the talks with Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, might turn out to be. According to the analyst, Moscow expects strategic clarity from Yerevan on the future of relations with Russia.

“To predict the outcome of the visit, one needs to understand what both sides expect from it. It’s clear what Moscow expects: above all, strategic clarity. Does present-day Armenia remain Russia’s strategic partner and ally, does it build its relations with Moscow in accordance with the principle of alliance? In particular, does its participation in the two integration processes, the CSTO and the EAEU, that is, the military and economic blocs together with Russia, remain in place? Does the Russian military base on Armenian territory remain, along with the joint nuclear energy project, and the status of Russia and Russian business structures as among the main taxpayers in Armenia?

On all these questions, Yerevan needs to take a clear position, rather than continuing to say: we’ll think about it, we have doubts, we’ll consult, we’re not changing anything now, but in three years maybe we’ll change everything. This strategic uncertainty should be resolved during this visit, if not 100%, then at least 80%. Moscow understands this perfectly well,” Stankevich said.

In the analyst’s view, Nikol Pashinyan’s strategy is the opposite – to avoid direct, unambiguous answers.

“As for Nikol Pashinyan, his task is most likely the opposite one, not to give an unambiguous answer to a single key question that will inevitably come up during the talks. He will try to create a certain fog: to say that Armenia is not canceling anything, is not initiating withdrawal from any structures, and is in principle ready to remain in both the military and economic blocs. But at the same time, a position may emerge along the lines of: if you yourselves decide you no longer need us, then that’s a different matter. The same goes for the Russian base in Gyumri: we’re not kicking it out, but if you want to leave, we won’t stand in the way.

All of this will be accompanied by the argument that Armenia has the right to move closer to the European Union and will continue on this course. Armenia has already fixed its course toward EU integration in the relevant law and, it seems, intends to continue it. Moreover, the government believes that the mandate it received in the elections, even a partial one, is sufficient for it to make decisions on EU integration without putting the matter to a referendum.

If Nikol Pashinyan really does come to Moscow with this line, then serious mutual understanding between the two sides is unlikely to emerge. The visit will not bring any particularly positive or significant results. The two sides will part unsatisfied with each other and will be left thinking about how to move forward while dealing with the consequences of their former partner’s behavior,” Stankevich concluded.