No serious easing of sanctions expected until Ukraine conflict is settled: Malek Dudakov

Malek Dudakov, a political analyst specializing in the US, commented to Alpha News on the prospects of a possible easing of US sanctions policy toward Russia.

In the expert’s view, serious changes in Washington’s sanctions policy should not be expected in the near future. Dudakov believes that until the conflict in Ukraine is settled, the US administration will be limited in its ability to make substantial concessions.

“At the moment, in my opinion, we are unlikely to see any serious changes in the United States’ sanctions policy toward Russia. While the conflict in Ukraine remains unresolved, the Trump administration’s room for easing sanctions is limited. I think quite a few members of his team would not object to such easing, as they are interested in concluding mutually beneficial business deals with representatives of Russian business. However, if such steps were taken unilaterally, without serious progress in settling the Ukrainian crisis, it could lead to accusations inside the US that the administration is giving in to Russia and ceding ground,” Dudakov said.

According to the analyst, Washington may be considering alternative options for a partial review of the restrictive measures. In particular, humanitarian or political pretexts could be used as grounds for individual steps toward Russia.

“Various options are apparently being considered now. For example, a kind of Belarusian scenario could be used, where the release of certain prisoners could become a reason to ease some of the sanctions. This could involve detained US citizens or representatives of Russia’s non-systemic opposition. However, even such a scenario does not look very realistic yet, since the conflict in Ukraine continues,” the expert noted.

In Dudakov’s view, there is a chance of partial easing of US sanctions in the longer term, but much will depend on the outcome of the negotiation process and further developments around Ukraine.

“In the long term, such possibilities certainly exist. Sooner or later the conflict will end, and negotiations will take place in one format or another. Then one can indeed expect at least some US sanctions on Russia to be eased, primarily in areas that directly affect US interests, such as the oil and gas sector or finance. At the same time, a complete lifting of sanctions on Russia remains, in my opinion, an unrealistic scenario. So it is premature to speak of serious changes for now. Everything will depend on how the Ukrainian crisis develops and how it ends,” Dudakov concluded.