Pashinyan’s “good cop and bad cop”

As expected, having “swallowed Artsakh”, official Baku not only did not ease the pressure on official Yerevan but also proceeded to raise territorial demands against Armenia in the form of an ultimatum.

On Tuesday, the Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan issued a statement in which it demanded eight “occupied” villages from Armenia in the form of an ultimatum.

According to the Azerbaijani media, the statement dated November 9 notes that “Armenia has chosen the path of obstructing negotiations on a peace treaty, continuing military-political provocations, and mining. Armenia has also not handed over to Azerbaijan eight Azerbaijani villages that are still under occupation.”

As has been repeatedly noted, official Baku will not limit itself to the absorption of Artsakh. Today, it openly demands control over eight villages, the issue of which has never been raised in the negotiation process before.

Judging by the hearings in the Azerbaijani parliament on “the return of Azerbaijanis to their homes” and by the “electronic map” showing that “93 settlements on the territory of Armenia should be renamed in accordance with the requirements of the Azerbaijani side,” today it is already clear what the new demand of Azerbaijan will be.

And what is Armenia doing in response to this?

It would be logical to assume that Armenia is working in the diplomatic field and trying to strengthen relations with its natural ally Iran, which has repeatedly stated that it will not allow changes in the borders of the region. It would be logical to assume that amid growing pressure on Yerevan from Azerbaijan and its main supporter, Turkiye, Armenia accepts the assistance of the CSTO to stabilize the situation, restore the military-political balance, and deploy observers or even peacekeepers on the border with Azerbaijan. However, reality shows that official Yerevan continues to severe relations with Russia.

On November 7, it was reported that the Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, will not attend the next meeting of the Secretaries of the CIS Security Councils, which is scheduled to take place on November 8 in Moscow.
The boycott of yet another event held under the auspices of the CIS is particularly noteworthy due to the fact that a few days ago, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan promised to “resolve problems in relations with Russia in a friendly atmosphere.”

A number of Russian experts and Russian media even managed to react to Mirzoyan’s statement, noting that “perhaps behind Mirzoyan’s words lies Armenia’s desire to start a constructive dialogue with Russia.”

The reality is that Pashinyan continues to work with Russia on the god cop and bad cop strategy. It has already become a tradition that Ararat Mirzoyan makes statements that, to a certain extent, mitigate the contradictions with Russia, while the secretary of the Security Council shows the real priorities of Pashinyan’s government.

On April 13, Armen Grigoryan gave an interview to one of the Armenian media outlets, in which he stated that the assistance project offered by the CSTO to Armenia after the events of September 2022 did not provide for arms support. And on December 7, during a question-and-answer session at the National Assembly, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan addressed the content of the documents proposed by the CSTO, stating that the issue of providing military and technical assistance to Armenia was also under discussion.

This cat-and-mouse game with Russia has been going on for several years. It would not be so disturbing if, having lost Russia as an ally, the Armenian authorities offered a real alternative, other than the three French radars, which were “sold to Yerevan under the pressure of the Armenian community in France”, or the disaster of turning the country into a Turkish vilayet. However, there is no such alternative.

Pashinyan is following the statements of Zhirayr Liparityan, who convinced the Armenian public on the Public Television of Armenia that the country should “rely on Turkiye’s mercy” because Armenians no longer have allies and who also believes that Aliyev’s statements about “Western Azerbaijan” are “a response to Armenia’s 25-year occupation and humiliation”.

Today, Azerbaijan demands eight villages. If this demand is met, what will Azerbaijan demand tomorrow?