Garnik Davtyan: Elections for Aliyev are the best way to once again consolidate his power

Speaking with Alpha News, Expert on Azerbaijani studies Garnik Davtyan noted that it was the high support provided to Ilham Aliyev after the latest events in Artsakh that prompted him to call a snap election.

“After the 44-day war in 2020, the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh on September 19 and the occupation of all of Artsakh, Ilham Aliyev received extremely high domestic political support in Azerbaijan, and also, why not, a rating that will definitely affect further political events in Azerbaijan. Consequently, waiting another year, especially in the South Caucasus, where it is unknown what events may happen in a month, would be a tactical mistake on the part of the Azerbaijani dictator. In fact, amid these two wars and the victory of Azerbaijan, he received high support, which contributed to Ilham Aliyev’s final decision to call a snap election,” the expert said.

According to Davtyan, for Aliyev, elections are a form of consolidating his power.

“In 2025, the mission of Russian peacekeepers in the Republic of Artsakh ends, and Ilham Aliyev needs to have domestic political stability before the end of the peacekeeping mission. Elections are surely the best way to once again consolidate his power and clarify his foreign policy,” Davtyan noted.

The expert is convinced that holding elections will not stop or prolong the process of signing a peace agreement․

“Given Azerbaijan’s haste in the context of the final signing of the peace agreement, I do not think that elections can become an obstacle to signing this agreement. Azerbaijan needs this so-called peace so that it can make new claims against Armenia and gain advantages both territorially and politically.

As such, early elections in Azerbaijan seem to have become a habit, not only in the case of presidential or parliamentary elections but also in the case of local government elections. I would not say that this became news or that Ilham Aliyev caught the opposition off guard, because the Azerbaijani opposition has almost learned that a few months or a year before each election such a chess move is made, which, in turn, creates certain difficulties in the domestic policy of Azerbaijan,” Davtyan emphasized.