Breaking ties with Russia is pure suicide for Armenian statehood: Andrey Perla

Political scientist Andrey Perla, speaking to Alpha News, commented on the outcome of the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, held in Bishkek on the sidelines of the SCO summit.

In the expert’s view, Pashinyan failed to convince Moscow that Armenia’s course toward the EU would not damage relations with Russia.

“Pashinyan tried to give the impression that his policy shouldn’t lead to withdrawal from the EAEU or to a deterioration of relations with Russia. However, the outcome of the meeting made clear that he managed to deceive no one. He arrived saying that Armenia had in fact not yet made a decision about joining the European Union, while Vladimir Putin quite calmly insisted that either the opinion of the Armenian people must be taken into account, in which case a referendum is needed, or no steps should be taken toward breaking ties with Russia. They did not reach agreement. In my view, the official Armenian press release’s claim that this was a good meeting does not entirely correspond to reality,” the political scientist noted.

According to the political scientist, Russia’s real interests lie in keeping Armenia as a partner.

“There are no contradictions between Armenia’s real interests and Russia’s real interests. Russia’s real interests lie in keeping Armenia as a partner. Armenia’s real interests lie in not losing the relative economic prosperity it has achieved thanks to its relationship with Russia. After Armenia joined the EAEU, the country’s GDP tripled. Ties with Russia account for 40 to 60 percent of the Armenian economy.

The question has genuinely been put point-blank, and there is no reason to think Russia will change its position simply because Russia truly has no intention of standing by and watching the Armenian government damage relations,” Perla said.

Commenting on Vladimir Putin’s remarks about the need to ask the people’s opinion, Perla noted that Russia continues to insist on a referendum regarding Armenia’s foreign policy course.

“Putin openly reminded Mr. Pashinyan that, despite the results of the parliamentary elections, the majority of the Armenian people are not on his side at all. That’s exactly why Russia insists on a referendum. Of the three million residents of Armenia, at least half are directly involved in economic ties with Russia, and these people don’t want them severed. Ask them about it in a referendum, in an opinion poll, or however you like, and you’ll get a completely unambiguous answer. That’s precisely why no referendum will ever produce consent to sever Armenia’s ties with Russia,” the political scientist said.

According to the political scientist, if Russia were to fully withdraw from Gyumri, the risks for Armenia would involve not only military security but also a possible strengthening of Turkish and Azerbaijani influence.

“Preserving Armenia’s sovereignty is possible only insofar as Russia guarantees the preservation of that sovereignty. If there is no Russian base in Gyumri, if Russia finally abandons the Armenian borders, then Armenia will become a plaything of the stronger states surrounding it. After that, one could even choose whom to lean on and whom to become a vassal to, because Iran doesn’t need Armenia as a vassal right now, so only Turkey remains. Therefore, given that Armenian statehood historically arose out of an attempt to escape from Turkey, breaking ties with Russia is, in this sense, pure suicide. I love Armenia very much, so it’s unpleasant for me to say this, but the so-called Fourth Republic proclaimed by Pashinyan is pure suicide for Armenian statehood.
If we imagine that there truly is no longer a Russian military base in Gyumri, then the phrase ‘Western Azerbaijan’ is not something we invented, everyone knows it. The demands to return 300,000 Azerbaijanis to Armenian territory are also known. Everyone is aware of the possibility of neighboring states’ troops entering Armenian territory.

I think it would be foolish to doubt that this is possible.

Turkey has a population of 80 million and the second-largest, most technically equipped, and overall strongest army in the NATO bloc, and what does Armenia have? Nothing at all. In this case, the only very faint hope lies in the fact that Iran has stated it doesn’t want Turkey entering Armenia. But how far Iran would be willing to go to defend Armenia is another question. It’s such a thin thread that it’s simply frightening to hang your country from it,” Perla concluded.